Tuesday, May 16, 2017

CPEC: Does It Make Economic Sense For Pakistan?


The hottest topic during the past weekend was BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) or OBOR (One Belt, One Road). Basically China's mega project of Belt and Road Initiative, connecting dozens of countries and building infrastructure with a "win-win" proposal.

One important part of OBOR has relevance to the Indian subcontinent. That is CPEC - China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

There are five parts to this writeup. Feel free to jump to any section that suits your interest as the writeup is quite long. If you have time, go through every section, including the videos and reading material links provided. You will need at least 5 hours to fully absorb the extensive research provided here, if you want to read and watch all the material provided.

Five parts in this writeup:
  1. General views from involved countries.
  2. Legality of a disputed area through which CPEC goes through.
  3. Misconceptions about CPEC in Pakistan.
  4. Strategic reasons for CPEC that would mostly benefit China only.
  5. Why both Pakistan and China are going ahead with CPEC? 

Part 1: There are three general views about CPEC, from three concerned countries.

  1. If you are a Pakistani, you will be talking about the bright future for Pakistan in CPEC and how Dollars will grow from trees in a generation! Of course, you will say Indians are jealous of Pakistan's upcoming massive development, and hence they are not joining OBOR or CPEC. By the way, CPEC is the largest investment promised to Pakistan since its formation in 1947!
  2. If you are an Indian, you will focus on Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, that is legally a part of India, but illegally occupied by Pakistani. You will also focus on Shaksgam valley and Aksai Chin as related areas of Jammu and Kashmir, illegally occupied by China. And, CPEC will eventually touch these Pakistan and China occupied territories that are legally a part of India due to 1947 J&K accession document. For India, this is a clear violation of its territorial sovereignty.
  3. If you are a Chinese, you will talk about economic cooperation with all neighbouring countries, specifically linking Indian ocean with Pacific ocean with the great CPEC project and OBOR mega scheme. As a Chinese, you would say, keep politics out of economic project.
But let's examine CPEC part of OBOR in detail. I am liberally using an excellent research posted on Twitter by an Anonymous poster {@handle_anonymus}. Special thanks to that man or woman, who has enlightened us all, while keeping anonymous. I also did some in depth reading and watching videos over the days to understand more on this. So this blog will have a combination of info, but presented in a way that will give you a bigger picture.

It does not matter if you support or oppose CPEC and OBOR. Just read to understand the ground realities and projections. Then give your opinion in comments, and specifically any corrections to the facts presented here.

Part 2: Why do you say that a part of CPEC route is illegal as per international laws?

This is about the entry point of CPEC into Pakistan from China. The first 300 or so KM of CPEC passes through Jammu and Kashmir state, which is a legal part of India. You can refer to my earlier blog to learn about Gilgit Baltistan area - Jammu and Kashmir, a Reality Check. I have provided maps and much more details about the overall regions and the "dispute" part.
"The multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is being touted as nothing more than a 'black hole' as far as people of Gilgit Baltistan (shown in green in the map below) are concerned. Junaid Qureshi, a Kashmiri writer raises voice against the CPEC project, which passes through Gilgit Baltistan, a disputed territory controlled by Pakistan."

In short, neither China, nor Pakistan can ever claim that they OWN this Gilgit Baltistan area, which Pakistan also called as Northern Areas. If this area goes to international court, neither China, nor Pakistan can ever produce Accession document, which is with India for the entire Jammu and Kashmir state, of which Gilgit and Baltistan are part of.

Why so much emphasis on Gilgit Baltistan, a part of Jammu and Kashmir state in India?

For those who have not studied or watched Gilgit and Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state,
there are some links here. It is a fabulously beautiful place on the earth!

Watch the first 7 minutes and the last five minutes. You will see how CPEC is building infrastructure in Indian territory occupied by Pakistan. In India this is called as Pakistan Occupied Kashmir or PoK for short.

Gilgit Baltistan is a  paradise of Jammu and Kashmir lost by India. Illegally occupied by Pakistan and China (Shaksgam valley).

"China occupies more than 20,000 square kilometer of Gilgit-Baltistan (part of Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir) covering Shaksgam, Raskam, Shimshal and Aghil valleys" - Senge Sering, President of Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies.

As part of the Sino-Pakistan Frontier Agreement from 1960s, the Chinese authorities guaranteed India that it accepted  Gilgit-Baltistan as a disputed territory and that the agreement was only  provisional in nature and would be renegotiated once the dispute of  Jammu & Kashmir was resolved.
This is the main reason India is saying CPEC is violating its territorial sovereignty.

This is how the Karakoram map highway was built between 1960s and 1980s first, and then being widened and strengthened during 2010s. India has objected to this many times in the past.

K2, the world's second highest peak is legally inside India per accession documents, but illegally occupied by Pakistan. See how beautiful it is.

In short, Gilgit Baltistan is a paradise, a tough terrain and strategically very important for India, but under Pakistan and China's joint occupation now, as described above. This is the core issue for dispute and there is no way it would end anytime soon.

It's always a possibility that India can block international loans to CPEC tomorrow, citing legality of the territory. It's quite possible and a big risk Pakistan is taking knowing well the reality of Gilgit Baltistan's accession to India history.

Part 3: Is CPEC really helpful for Pakistan? Let's examine Five big misconceptions.

For a minute let's say.. who cares about Indian opposition? Both China and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and there is no practical way India can wrestle Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan and China by force. India can play other tricks like water sharing cut off. But "we" can deal with them when they happen. "We" are going ahead with CPEC no matter what...

In that case, ask again. Is CPEC really helpful for Pakistan? This is the core question for this blog. CPEC is certainly helpful for China as it is planning it.
  1. But for Pakistan? Is it worth the time, money, effort, international conflicts and much more?
  2. Beyond politics, loans, technology etc... the big question is.. is this CPEC making economic sense to Pakistan, where most of the things are being built?
Now I will use the information from Twitter, referred here. I am going to present almost line by line that research from here onward.

There have been many rationals provided for CPEC. Pakistanis think that it would upend sea route and CPEC would become primary supply route for Chinese goods and thus when it is completed then Dollars will flow through canals! First I demolish five misconceptions that people may have about CPEC, and then ponder on why it is being built, and its ramifications.

First misconception about CPEC: Cost of Transportation will become less

The first misconception is that it would become a supply route to China by upending sea route for goods supplied to and from mid-east. It is not so and I would try to prove it using approximations with data available from open sources.

Distance between Shanghai and Kashi (Kashgar) = 5121 KM.
Distance between Kashgar and Gwadar = 2747 KM.

Average Trucking cost per Ton per KM in China = 5 cents.
Average Trucking cost per Ton per KM in Pakistan = 1.8 cents.

These cost are from a decade ago, and would have become 6 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.This is the most conservative calculation as I am not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway) and the Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert, Kulun Shan mountains range and Altai Shan mountain range.

But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Ton of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.

Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.06 X 5121 = $307
Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41
So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a Ton of goods = $389.41

Now let destination port be Dubai.

Cost of Transporting Dubai to Shanghai = $820 per TEU.
Since standard 1 TEU = 21,600 KG, the Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $38.

Cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational).
So the cost of transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787.
Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $395.

Total cost of Shipping directly from Dubai to Shanghai = $38 which is 10.4 times less than that of Transporting via Gwadar !!

And this is not all. CPEC passes through Khunjareb Pass which remain open only from May 1st till December 31st of each year.  So CPEC can't be the main route to anywhere.

Second misconception about CPEC: China needs an energy Pipeline

The second misconception is that China is constructing a pipeline from Gwadar to Nawabshah. It has lead to Pakistanis speculating that Gwadar is on path of becoming an energy. Their TV shows even pulled in Iran and Russia into the gas equation of CPEC.

But it is not - reasons are here.

If one look at this map properly, China borders Gas and Oil rich Central Asia and has three mega pipelines running from Central Asia to China, including the world's longest pipeline
This version of map does not show Indian borders accurately
Of anything that China needs, the least thing that China needs in East Turkestan is Energy. It could get ample amount of it just from across the border, some 100's of KM away. Note that East Turkestan is referred by China as its Xinjiang province, but there is a lot of controversy around that involving the native inhabitants Muslim Uyghurs. This CPEC runs through Xinjiang province on the Chinese part.

Third misconception about CPEC: It saves time 

The third misconception about CPEC is that it could save time. This again is false. Let’s assume the best possible conditions for a truck. A Truck would not stop anywhere (No rest for drivers, no checkpoints, no fuel or repair break) and assume that a Truck runs 24 Hours at 30KMph, and I am neglecting time it would be needed to transfer goods in Gwadar.

Time required for Travel = 262 Hours = 11 Days.

Via sea, the time required for transport of a container from Dubai to Karachi = 5 days.
So the total time required for overland transport when drivers and port handlers are supermen = 16 days.

Time required to transport a container from Dubai to Shanghai via sea = 15 Days.

This was an outlier calculation. Let's be realistic. Assume that a driver drives for 12 hour per day, it would take and on average take a day extra to go through customs and refueling stop. It would take him 91.57 hours to reach Kashgar, which would be equal to 7.7 days or 8.7 days taking pit stops into account. That Truck would take 170 Hours to reach Shanghai from Kashgar. That is 14 days of driving and assuming two days for pit stops, 16 days. We assume that Gwadar is as efficient as that of Karachi, it would take 6 days to clear import formalities.

Thus the total time it would need to transport goods from Dubai to Shanghai via Gwadar would be 36 days, compared to 15 days it would take to reach Dubai from Shanghai via Malacca!!

Fourth misconception about CPEC: It could serve Western China

There are two follies to this argument.
The first being that western China is sparsely populated and the second being that other seaports are closer to those provinces.

Following provinces are close to CPEC
1. East Turkestan (Xinjiang): Area 1664900 Sq KM; Pop 22.09 million.
2. Qinghai: Area 720,000 Sq KM; Pop 5.58 million.
3. Gansu : Area 425,800 Sq KM; Pop 25.64 million.
4. Inner Mongolia: Area 1183,000 Sq KM; Pop 24.82 million.
5. Tibet: Area 1228400 Sq KM; Pop 3.145 million.

Total area of these provinces = 5,222,100 Sq KM.
This is 54% of Total area of China, and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.

This is the extent of how sparsely populated Western part of China is.
Chinese version of map does not show Indian borders accurately

  Pakistan shares border with Takla Makan desert of China.
Chinese version of map does not show Indian borders accurately
A Highway & Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of the country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. See this map closely for climatic regions of Asian eastern half. Clearly a large portion of CPEC's intended area within today's China is BWk (Desert) or ET (Alpine) areas with very minimal human population. 

Deserts, cold arid Plateaus, and mountains reduce your Economic potential (unless you harness them for tourism like Switzerland).

Now we come to aspect of distance between West Chinese cities and nearest seaports.

CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China. It is joining China in North-West corner of China, that is the western corner of East Turkestan. The only provinces that it could affect are East Turkestan (Xinjiang) and its neighbours Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu in Western China, and Inner Mongolia in Northern China.

Source: Wiki

Many people would find it difficult to fathom that some provinces (mostly in West China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. East Turkestan is 2.1 times larger, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu is half of Pakistan.

Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan than even Europe. For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far away from Islamabad by air (3559 KM) as Ankara (3600 KM).
CPEC could not be used by people separated by 2 provinces from Pakistan. It is a non starter.

But let’s present facts still.
Take Shaanxi - Capital Taiyuan; Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4904.3 KM.
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin) = 943 KM.
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6644 KM.

Take Ningxia - Capital Yinchuan; Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4337 KM.
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin) = 1200 KM.
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6077 KM.

Take Chongquing (No capital); Distance of Chongquing  from Islamabad = 5069 KM.
Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 KM. This is considering the construction of Three Gorges Dam. Barring the largest cargo ships, ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing. But still distance between Chongquing and Shanghai is 1689 KM.
Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 KM.

Take Guzihou - capital Gulyang; Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5459 KM.
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 796 KM.
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7199 KM.

Take Yunnan - capital (Kuming); Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5859 KM.
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 1024 KM.
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7635 KM.

Take Sichuan - capital (Chengdu); Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4976 KM.
Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Chongquing) = 326 KM and (Shanghai) = 1968 KM.
Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6716 KM.

All these Western provinces that Pakistanis dream Gwadar would serve are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 KM, and of Paris is 7300 KM; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.

Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. It already has a corridor via Myanmar to Yunnan province for redundancy in 2013 itself.

Fifth misconception about CPEC: It would develop East Turkestan (Xinjiang)

Now we come to final dream of CPEC - that it would develop far west of China that is East Turkestan. This is pure day dreaming.

The reason that East Turkmenistan is not developed is because most of it is covered with Takla Makan desert. near Pakistan border and Tien Shan mountain range in the north.

Inner Mongolia region is not developed because most of it is covered with Gobi desert.

Quinghai is not developed because most of its is mountainous with Kulun, Altun and Bayan Har shan mountain ranges.

Gansu is not developed because its area is covered with Gobi desert and Quilian Shan mountain range.

Tibet is not developed because it is a barren cold plateau.
Chinese version of map does not show Indian borders accurately
These places have a low population density because of geographical limitations. Desert and Mountains never support high population, and this is a basic economic rule that low population areas never have high growth potential (because of less number of producers and consumers). Barring discovery of oil, desert remains civilization backwater, irrespective of how many road you build since their population supporting capacity is limited by some very basic factors, FOOD and WATER. Even if you transport food at great cost in this area, you would still have no water to support a large settlement.

Part 4: Then WHY is China financing such a massive CPEC project?
Now that we have put some misconceptions regarding CPEC out of way, we ponder on reasons why China is financing CPEC? There are four key reasons.

First reason for China building CPEC: Backup Trade route 

The first reason is that China is building an alternative trade route in case Malacca and Sunda straits are blocked by US Navy or Indian Navy during a war. You need to go through either Malacca, Sunda, or Lombok straits, if you want to travel from Pacific to Indian oceans and does not want to swing around Papua New Guinea or Australia.

Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straits of south east Asia

CPEC will provide China with alternative route, in case its sea trade is shut down by navies dominating the Indian Ocean.

Second reason for China building CPEC: Excess Built-up Capacity  

The second reason for CPEC/OBOR is that China has excess capacity in Cement and Steel which it could not dump in market as most countries have started imposing countervailing duties on Chinese dumping. China is dumping its excess Steel and Cement capacity in OBOR, which the recipient countries have to pay. European investment into China has decreased recently. In 2016 it dropped 23% - lowest in 10 years. Chinese market access issues causing it. So China looking elsewhere to make profits.

Third reason for China building CPEC: Get Asian countries into Chinese debt 

The third is strategic reason. China is trying to bind Asian countries to itself by investing in their infrastructure, investment that carry a steep rate of return, thus indebting them to China. This is not limited to Pakistanis as even Sri Lanka has $50Bn debt due to politically motivated Chinese investment in Hambantota done during Rajpaksa’s time, which it is finding difficult to discharge. Tajikistan is also facing a similar issue with big loans from Chinese.

CPEC plan made public: Nawaz Sharif's march towards turning Pakistan into Chinese province begins

Nothing much to gain for Pakistan. (A Pakistani TV debate): 104 Coal plants closed in China, but pollution would escalate in Pakistan. Then there is always the loan issue.

Fourth reason for China building CPEC: Sweet deal in Pakistan

The fourth reason is that China is getting a very sweet deal from Pakistanis for CPEC. See a number of news and analysis links here provided from Pakistani newspapers.

Chinese banks provide loans for CPEC, which is constructed using Chinese cement, steel, and manpower thus effectively returning that money back to Chinese economy.

Pakistan pays 2-5% interest rate above Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate), has taken sovereign guarantee for 18% RoR.

Pakistan would be paying China $90 billion on a loan of $50 billion!!! .. and that too when it has limited avenues to make money from CPEC,while dumping of Chinese goods would kill Pakistan industry. Pakistan also has to pay for ancillary expenditure like security from its pocket.

Part 5: Finally, then WHY are China and Pakistan going ahead with CPEC?

From Chinese perspective, it is simple. It knows that Pakistan would not be able to pay its loan
and eventually China would come to own infrastructure and/or land inside Pakistan. It is classical neo-colonialism. Make a country so indebted to you that it could not help but sell itself to you. Pakistan would become a puppet of China completely :(

To this effect, China is also making Pakistan drive out any alternative creditors like ADB so that it does not have a competition in colonizing Pakistan.

Pakistan, on its part, is desperate for any investment, on whichever term it comes with. Pakistan's Military is getting a share, its people have a hope that CPEC would bring prosperity, and it also believe that if China own majority of assets in Pakistan, it would interfere in any future Indo-Pak war to save its assets.

If you have analyzed the analysis so far, you would be shaking your head stating - "It is hard to understand the mentality of Pakistanis.... also love the meticulous planning Chinese have done to reap a windfall in CPEC!"

Do you agree with the analysis? Tell me your feedback openly and in a civil way, by leaving a comment.


Bonus Material:
Some ancient Sanskrit names of some cities of East Turkestan or Xinjiang province of China; 

Karasahr - Agnidesh 
Khotan - Kustana 
Aksu - Bharuka 
Kucha - Kuchina 
Kashgar - Sailadesha. 

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Jammu and Kashmir - A Reality Check

Every day I keep seeing questions on Jammu and Kashmir. Who does it belong to? How did we get here? What are the solutions? Who is to blame?

Let me answer the four most pertinent questions:

  1. Will India be able to improve relations with Pakistan?
  2. What is wrong with Kashmir, the Kashmir people, Hurriyat, and the governments of India and Pakistan?
  3. Which nation does Aksai Chin belong to : China or India?
  4. Why doesn’t India give Kashmir to the Kashmiris?
Part 1) Will India be able to improve relations with Pakistan?

Pakistan is a country built on a faulty foundation. The 2 nation theory wherein Muslims can't live with Hindus (mostly) was their firm belief. But after losing Bangladesh due to their own crime, that theory is now flushed. Also, the gradual prosperity of Indian Muslims, who are living with Hindus well for most part, has shocked the 4th generation of Pakistan since independence. Economically, Pakistan is nothing in front of India. Pakistan's economy is much less than just one state of India, that is Maharashtra.

Economy of Maharashtra - $398 billion (in 2015)
Economy of Pakistan - $271 billion (in 2015)

The only thing that is keeping Punjabis, Sindhis, Pathans, Baluchs and others is the artificially created hate against India (victim hood). India will be able to improve relationship with Pakistan only to the extent of keeping away mad Generals of Pakistan from actually triggering the danger buttons on missiles. Beyond that, it is more of a stick, carrot, stick, carrot... relationship. Because you can't have perfect relationship with someone whose only dream is to destroy you.


Part 2) What is wrong with Kashmir, the Kashmir people, Hurriyat, and the governments of India and Pakistan?

Basically who is blaming whom..

There is nothing wrong with Kashmir. What we have is a dispute cultivated by Britain and USA, during 1940s and early 1950s. Now it is an issue cultivated by China for its economic benefits and access to Arabian sea and Indian ocean via Pakistan. Even after 7 decades, there is no end in sight.

Kashmir is generally a term used for the whole of Jammu and Kashmir state. The state as it was in 1947, is a big one. Today, 60% of the state is within India, even after the Maharajah who ruled in 1947 (Hari Singh) formally signed an accession document to merge his state into India, like 100s of other Rajas. Pakistan has control of 30% which it invaded in the form of "tribal" invasion. China has control of about 10%. China might have a bit more than 10% as, Pakistan in 1960s "gifted" a lush green Shaksgam valley in the north, to China.

The Maharajah of Jammu and Kashmir princely state signed with India in 1947 an
instrument of accession. That's it. J&K belongs to India eternally or at least close to eternity :)

This map  (and another map in Part 3) shows approximately the areas held by India, Pakistan and China. 
PoK = Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and CoK = China Occupied Kashmir. 
These are standard terms used in Indian parliament. Some also use PoJK and CoJK.

Now coming to "Kashmir".. there are five distinct parts of Jammu and Kashmir state.

1) Kashmir valley - Small valley around Srinagar.
2) Jammu - Southernmost part of J&K. Most populated place.
3) Ladakh - Eastern Himalayan hills. Has the world's highest motorable road etc. Very sparely populated.
4) Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK): This has two distinct parts. One is the southern strip along India's Kashmir valley, which Pakistan calls as "Azad Kashmir". Then the bigger northern part which is Gilgit and Baltistan. Now-a-days, these two areas - Gilgit and Baltistan, are together termed as Northern Areas.
5) Aksai Chin (CoK) - North Eastern J&K under China's control since 1962 war where Chinese walked into this area. Aksai Chin is almost a desert where no one lives. China also controls the lush green Shaksgam Valley (CoK 1 in the map), "gifted" by Pakistan in 1960s, in return for things which you can imagine.

Only two of these five places actually have protests and people movements today. That is Kashmir valley within India, and PoK or Azad Kashmir in Pakistan. The former is larger and louder. The latter is smaller, but simmering. Kashmir Valley has separatist groups under a Hurriyat banner, which represents overall less than 5% of the overall Jammu and Kashmir. But media projects them as the true representatives of "Kashmiris". Some of them want to become independent and some opt for Pakistan. On the Pakistan side, low key movements are there to join India. They are not given much publicity in media.

So if you look at the overall picture, majority of Jammu and Kashmir is peaceful or without any movements today. It's only the 10 to 20% of the overall state, centered around the valley, that has disruptions. There are zero problems in the large populated part of Jammu and Kashmir state, the Jammu region. Jammu is predominantly Hindu and Ladakh is predominantly Buddhist. That might explain why those regions have no issues with India.

India blames Pakistan sponsored terrorism and support to separatism for all the problems.  And they keep coming inside India regularly. Almost every month you will see a gun battle, with cross border infiltration bids being stopped. You also see many demonstrations in Kashmir valley, with Hurriyat groups mobilizing 1000s of Kashmiri Muslim youth to come against India. India's claim is, just like 500+ princely states that signed the accession document, J&K also signed. So the whole state legally belongs to India. That is the final settlement.

Pakistan blames India for all the trouble. Pakistan talks of occupation by India. Pakistan goes back to 1940s and 50s when a three step process was discussed. It shows that India had agreed to do a plebiscite for the whole state then considering a war situation. But India says that one of the pre condition put by UN was that Pakistan should withdraw from all the areas of Jammu and Kashmir that it had army on. Pakistan refused to withdraw its troops. So India conducted democratic elections in its part of J&K and the matter is closed since then.

China does not openly blame much, but quietly sides with Pakistan. After all China got parts of Jammu and Kashmir with almost no effort, and it wants Pakistan for its CPEC (economic corridor) to open a gateway to Arabian Sea/Indian ocean. Without PoK, China has no direct border with Pakistan, so it is vital from China's expansionist agenda to support Pakistan at any cost, even when Pakistan sponsors terrorism on large scale against India and other countries. China also keeps offering 'mediation' which India rejects every time within minutes.

Hope this gives a glimpse of the core issue. Frankly, the issue is not as bad as you see in the media. More than 12 million people live on the Indian side of J&K today. More than 10 million of those live peacefully. "Kashmir Problem" is essentially a problem in a small part within Kashmir valley, of a huge Jammu and Kashmir state.

Part 3: Which nation does Aksai Chin belong to : China or India?

Aksai Chin belongs to India.

Two reasons:
  1. It was a part of Jammu and Kashmir princely state. In fact, the Maharajah of Jammu and Kashmir had even constructed a fort at Shahidulla (modern-day Xaidulla, a part of Xinjiang in China today), and had troops stationed there for some years to protect caravans. So it was more than Aksai Chin that was under Jammu and Kashmir ruler’s control.
  2. It was a part of 1865 Johnson line during British survey of India. William Johnson, a civil servant with the Survey of India had drawn the "Johnson Line" in 1865, which had put Aksai Chin into Jammu and Kashmir. After 1947 October, Jammu and Kashmir joined India through a legally signed accession document by the Maharajah. This was similar to 100s of other Maharajahs who signed to accede to India during that year, which British left India, creating India and Pakistan as two separate nations.

If you look closely, Aksai Chin has borders with both Xinjiang and Tibet. Both were not with China 70 years ago. Chinese call the 1949 occupation of Xinjiang (a Turkish Muslim dominated province) as the “Peaceful liberation of Xinjiang”. Before that in 1878, Chinese had “reconquered Xinjiang” once. Not sure why they needed a second “liberation” in 1949. They also term the 1951 occupation of Tibet by China as “Incorporation of Tibet into the People's Republic of China”. In short, both are huge central Asian regions and both were not a part of what we know as China today, before 1949.

Then how did India lose Aksai Chin to China?

Because post 1947 independence, India was going through a big turmoil. Civil war, massive poverty and other issues had kept the first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru busy with highly populated places, taking focus off Aksai Chin which had almost no population. It was a barren land in the high altitude of Himalayas, at the tip of Northern India. Moreover, Tibet was a buffer state between India and China, and a friendly one. So India had nothing to worry on Aksai Chin area. But the newly resurgent China had just “incorporated” massive provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet, and was building China National Highway 219. That highway runs through Aksai Chin connecting Lazi and Xinjiang in the Tibet Autonomous Region. Despite this region being nearly uninhabitable and having no resources, it remains strategically important for China as it connects Tibet and Xinjiang. The highway construction started in 1951 and the road was completed in 1957. This was one of India’s biggest blunders, as they did not “notice” this highway built through Aksai Chin, fully claimed by it! By the time they lodged complaints with China, it was too late.

So China literally got 10s of 1000s of sq. KM of Aksai Chin area, while India was sleeping or busy with internal issues. Now they are using it as a bargain to get more strategic lands east of Himalayas.
  • So Aksai Chin belonged to Jammu and Kashmir.
  • It became a part of India after Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India via a legal signature in 1947.
  • But it mostly is under Chinese control since 1950s as India was “too busy” to notice a massive highway being built by China through Aksai Chin.
  • It is officially termed as CoJK in India - China occupied Jammu and Kashmir
There is also another part of Jammu and Kashmir state of India, called Shaksgam valley. That is not barren like Aksai Chin. It is a beautiful lush green Himalayan mountain region, “gifted” by Pakistan in 1963 to China for other “favours” extended by China. It is CoJK - 2 (China Occupied Jammu and Kashmir part 2) in Jammu and Kashmir.

Shaksgam Valley must be the only land on this planet, which belongs to one country (India) legally, but “gifted” by a second country (Pakistan) to a third country (China) for other favours received!
So Aksai Chin and Shaksgam Valley issues would remain a thorn between India and China relations for decades to come.. if not longer.

Lastly, not only Aksai Chin, but China technically has no business with Himalayas. Even today, 94% of Chinese live east of the Heihe-Tengchong line or Hu Huanyong line. Yes 94%!!

Sorry: J&K map is not accurate in this population density map found on the net.

Look on the Indian side. There are 100s of millions of Indians living within 100–200 KM from Himalayas all across its west to East length. So all these claims of Tibet, Aksai Chin, Shaksgam valley, Arunachal Pradesh, Xinjiang are fairly strategic and new from Chinese point of view, without any basis from historic or population existence logic. The Hun Chinese have historically been limited to the east of Hu Huanyong line. And it holds true even today.

Part 4 (Final): Why doesn’t India give Kashmir to the Kashmiris?

Kashmir is a small valley in the larger state of Jammu and Kashmir.
Jammu and Kashmir is today divided among 3 countries - India, Pakistan and China.

Only one country has the legal instrument of accession signed - that is India.

The Instrument of Accession is a legal document executed by Maharaja Hari Singh, ruler of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, on 26 October 1947. By executing this document under the provisions of the Indian Independence Act 1947, Maharaja Hari Singh agreed to accede to the Dominion of India.

Just like modern India was formed by 500+ such accession documents signed by erstwhile Rajas, Nawabs, and other leaders, Jammu and Kashmir joined India in 1947. Once a part of Indian union each state has freedom within its territories, as defined by the constitution of India. Compared to rest of Indian states, J&K has a lot more freedom and autonomy. More than 200 constitutional amendments to Indian constitution are not even applicable in J&K as of today.

So no matter how many decades this talk goes on, No Pakistani or No Chinese can ever claim an inch of Jammu and Kashmir state, as the entire state is a legal part of India due to the accession document.

Pakistan is illegally occupying Pakistani Occupied Kashmir (both Muzaffarabad region and Gilgit- Baltistan areas.)

China is illegally occupying Shaksgam valley (COK 1) and Aksai Chin (COK 2). See map at the top of this blog post for details.

So Kashmir is already with Kashmiris. There are Kashmiri Chief Ministers governing the state for decades. Just like a Kannadiga governs Karnataka, a Odia governs Odisha, a Kashmiri is governing now.

Whatever violence and trouble we have there is sponsored by Pakistan which is illegally occupying a big portion of J&K. The moment China and Pakistan vacate their illegal occupations, and return the entire J&K to the rightful owner India, all problems would be solved immediately.

PS: All images used in this blog post are found using public search on internet. All credits to original rights holders.

History of Bengaluru

There was a discussion.. Which languages did Bengaluru speak historically? Who built Bengaluru?

Since I am born and brought up in Bengaluru, I have seen right my childhood many languages and regions trying to “claim” that this city belongs to them :) So nothing is new in asking such things, but maybe this would give you opportunity to learn more on this amazing city of India that is contributing Lakhs of Crores towards India’s economy today, each year. 

Let me take you back a 1000 years and give a tour of Bengaluru's history.

Start with Gangas: Ganga (shown in the map below yellow region), was a formidable south Indian kingdom 1000 years ago. Their capital was initially north east of Bengaluru (Kolara) and then moved to south west of Bengaluru (Talakadu). History of Bengaluru starts with Ganga period.

Source: Karnataka Gata Vaibhava by Aloor Venkataraya.

Then came Hoysalas. The territory of Bengaluru was under Gangas till then, but no city or town was in place. About 900 years ago, Veera Ballala, the Hoysala King lost his way during a hunting expedition in today’s Bengaluru area. It was a semi forest then. An old lady cooked beans for the king and served the hungry man. He was so delighted that he called that place, Benda kaal-ooru in Kannada (ಬೆಂದ ಕಾಳ ಊರು), literally meaning in English, “the town/city of boiled beans”. That’s the most popular story of how the name got stuck. Later BendaKaalooru became Bengaalooru and then Bengaluru. All three have the same meaning in Kannada - the city of boiled beans.

Still it was nothing more than a small village then.

Then came Kempe Gowda 1. He was a paale-gaara (feudatory) of the mighty Vijayanagara kingdom,which was ruled from Hampi in the center of southern peninsula. Vijayanagara was the biggest Hindu kingdom of India 500 years ago. It’s capital Hampi was the richest city in India 500 years ago.. Maybe it was among the 5 richest cities of the world reading the chronicles of how they sold precious stones on street sides then. Vijayanagara was a Kannada and Telugu hybrid kingdom, with both languages passionately claiming the mighty Krishna Deva Raya - a good thing in India :) Maybe even Tulu people might join the claiming race soon! As you can see, Vijaya Nagara (City of Victory) occupied almost the entire south India, with extensions going into Goa and Odisha at the peak. And Kempe Gowda being a part of Vijayanagara rule, had his hand in the geographical center, including the future gold mine, Bengaluru.

Kempe Gowda built four watch towers marking the four boundary poles of Bengaluru.
  1. Lal Bagh in the south
  2. Kempambudi Kere (lake) in the west,
  3. Halasuru kere (lake) in the east, and
  4. Mekhri circle area in the north.
Today, Lal bagh still exists. You can go see the tower there. For the rest, you have to search a lot.
If you walked around the Pete (in Kannada pete - ಪೇಟೆ - means shopping area) area of Bengaluru three centuries ago, this is how you would have seen. Even today, most of these Pete’s exist, with many remarkably doing the same kind of business their great-great-great fathers did centuries ago!
Bale-pete means bangle market and Akki-pete means rice market. Every pete is either named after a commodity name in Kannada, or a community/caste that did business there. Uppara, Ganiga and Tigala are all community/caste names in Kannada. Today, the most famous police station near the central Majestic bus stand is Upparpete police station, retaining the historic name!

Then Bengaluru picked up growth well. A fort came up in the center. Got reinforced. Marathas had their share of building the city center. Hyder Ali and Tipu had their share of building. Some small villages that existed with Chola influence in the north East (near Halasuru) got absorbed into the main city. This area Halasuru derives name from Halasu + Ooru meaning the town of Jack Fruit trees. British pronounced it Ulsoor. By now it was a very cosmopolitan city with great weather, good commerce, well protected and many languages. So people started coming in from all corners as it was the geographical center of south India.

This was Bengaluru about 250 years ago. Today, this circle is within the central 25% of the city.

Source: How Kempe Gowda built Bangalore.

Kempe Gowda’s city was absorbed into Mysuru (Mysore as British called) kingdom ruled from Srigangapattana (later Mysuru). This was after Vijayanagara collapsed and Hampi was ransacked and pillaged by Sultanates of Deccan plateau. What started as a small Mysuru (in yellow below), grew in strength and peaked by 1782 when Hyder Ali had taken over from Wodeyar rulers. Hyder Ali was employed by Wodeyars, but he tricked his way into taking over a kingdom. At the peak of Mysuru, the boundaries reached well into today’s central Telangana, half of today’s Tamil Nadu, half of today’s Rayala Seema (AP) and northern Kerala. It did not however contain the northern edges of Karnataka, which were firmly with Sultans/Nizams of Deccan. Bengaluru started growing rapidly during this phase with palaces, forts, gardens, trade etc.

Pic source: Wiki (John Bartholomew and Sons. Edinburgh - Lewis Rice, Mysore Gazetteer, Volume I, Mysore in General, 1897)

Then Tipu died fighting the British in a series of wars at the end of 18th century. That was the biggest turning point for today’s Karnataka region. British divided the Kannada speaking areas into many dominions. They gave away the north western parts to Bombay (Marthas), North East to Hyderabad (Nizam), south west, south and south east to Madras (British). The might of Kannada empires since 4th century CE on the western part of south India collapsed. Mysuru became a landlocked dominion of the British empire and struggled over the next 150 years. Kannada speakers got spread out into multiple provinces/states losing unity and cohesion for the next 150 years. Since the original question was related to Tamil, you can see that today’s Coimbatore, Erode, Krishnagiri, Hosur, Palghat (Kerala now), Ooty etc. were all a part of Mysuru before British took them over, and merged with Madras. That was a big turning point in the history of south India, languages, rivers etc. Even the Mettur dam region in Tamil Nadu today, the biggest dam on Kaveri river, was a part of Mysuru kingdom a little over 200 years ago. Most of today’s south India’s river sharing, border overlaps, linguistic fights etc. have roots in that major surgery that British did.

 Source: The Tiger and the Thistle

Then what British did was to let Mysuru keep the Bengaluru city proper (the Pete area we talked about above). They build a big garrison and new cantonment in the north east of the city. They loved the weather of the city and lived in the cantonment. Since their capital was Madras in the south, they brought in lots of Tamil and Telugu people into the cantonment for various army and service related jobs. The oldest engineering regiment of Indian army today, is incidentally from the same cantonment area of Bengaluru (Madras Engineering Group), which is right next o Halasuru lake! The map below is from 1914, by which, the new MG Road had clearly divided the older Pete city of Bengaluru from the new cantonment area of Bengaluru.

Source: Baedeker Indien 1914 Maps

Then the city grew immensely after independence - primarily due to the availability of technical resources, education and great weather. Today, the city is the second biggest in India in terms of area (after Dilli/NCR, though they have multiple municipalities), having 198 wards. The older pete parts of the city are hidden in the central ward around 109 (Chikka pete). The cantonment area of British is around ward 90 (Halasuru). The city has grown on all 360 degrees, almost reaching Tamil Nadu at ward 192 and 191. In the north it is growing so fast now, that from the international airport in the north, you can travel to Andhra Pradesh border faster than the southern edge of the city!

 Source: Maps Of India

The city has grown so big today that you can almost walk to Tamil Nadu (Hosur) in the south East from ward 192 (Begur). It is just around 10 KM and in another 5 years, the city might actually grow right to Tamil Nadu border!

Hope this long explanation gave you a history of Bengaluru and Karnataka, how it got the name, historic pete parts that thrived for 400+ years, historic boundary, British arrival into cantonment, migrations and the 360 degree growth today.

In summary, Bengaluru has always been a Kannada speaking city since Kempe Gowda’s times. But it has absorbed Telugu, Tamil, Urdu, Malayalam, Marathi, Tulu, Konkani, Hindi and much more over the centuries. Today it has the largest population of migrants from North Eastern states in south India. I don’t remember ever from my school days long ago, when we had less than 5 languages in our class room :) During my college days, I remember just in 5 KM drive from Majestic to MG Road, I could see Kannada, Telugu, Hindi, English, Tamil and Malayalam movies in theaters, all running house full!

So it is a a city for everyone. Respect the diversity, respect the willingness of the city to absorb people from all corners of India, and still keep harmony for most part.

Enjoy :)

Why is Congress losing its ground in India?

There was a question on Quora:

Why is Congress losing its ground in India?
A cursory look at the political map of India reveals that the Congress rules some patches at the margins with only Karnataka, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh left as the proper in-land states..

I tried to answer with March 2017 current assessment of Indian politics. See if you agree with me.

Congress is losing during the 2010s mainly because of the following:

1) An ailing President, who does not give up the top post.
Sonia Gandhi has been the President of Congress for nearly 20 years now. By far that is the longest stint in Congress party’s history, even if you go back to pre independence era. No one held for so long the top post. Congress talks of Muslims, Dalits, Poor etc., but never thought of giving the much coveted top post to any of them.
Sonia was doing well with well informed strategists for the first 10 years into her presidency. But then her health has started giving way. No one knows where she goes for medical treatment, what illnesses she has, who pays, how serious is her condition etc. Only half news and rumours float around. This is Congress party’s big weakness now. With a strong unbeatable Amit Shah- Narendra Modi combo sweeping India, an ailing and at times untraceable Congress President will weaken lot of plans and strategy. When Modi can do 100s of big rallies and road shows in a year, Congress can’t even match with 10 big rallies with Sonia as star campaigner. That is hurting.

2) A reluctant and incompetent Vice President
Rahul Gandhi is undoubtedly Congress party’s biggest weakness now. His track record is horrible, and in any corporate setup, such a Vice President would have been fired long ago. But as Congress party always runs around the Nehru-Gandhi family, he has to be kept in the center, with more capable mass leaders running around him like electrons around a Nehru-Gandhi nucleus!
Here is a famous joke about him floating on Twitter. It tells you everything in succinct terms.

And, he also has the same problem as his mother. He disappears out of India for longer periods without anyone knowing what is happening. You can’t run a party successfully with millions of workers and supporters, if you have mother and son combo at the top, be unaccountable in most cases and untraceable on occasions.

And interestingly, wherever Congress is still existing, like Karnataka and Punjab, it is mainly because of capable local leaders like Siddaramaiah and Amarinder Singh. Not because of Sonia or Rahul. Amarinder might even have strategically kept Rahul out of Punjab campaigns recently.

3) Lack of vision that matches with the vision of 21st century India.
Ask any Congress loyalist. What are the top 5 schemes or projects for India today? They will repeat the same things that were there during Indira Gandhi’s time. But young India is demanding much more. Modi’s Jan Dhan Yojana, Digital India, Standup India, Skill India are the kind of things young India wants. Not the same old Garibi hatao slogans and obsolete NREGA kind of artificial employment generation schemes of Congress. The very reason Congress was reduced to just 7 seats in a 403 member assembly of UP recently, shows that people have totally dumped Congress. Even the most loyal vote banks of Congress has been distancing itself out.

4) Most of its core political strategy is taken away by BJP.
Congress had great years between 1950s and 1980s. Mainly it was due to social engineering across castes and religions, and pro poor socialistic freebies. But now BJP has worked out its own social engineering. That has made Congress vote bank disappear in most states. Secondly, India has moved on and freebies don’t win elections anymore. India needs real work like LPG cylinders in crores of rural homes, electrification of the remotest villages, 10s of crores of new bank accounts, demonetization that the poor perceive as hurting the black money hoarding rich.. Most of Congress’ agenda and vote bank has been snatched by clever moves of BJP. Also, Congress playing second fiddle to regional satraps like Lalu, Mulayam and Karunanidhi is hurting even more. But who has time to sit and discuss all these? See reasons 1 and 2 above to know the core reasons again.

5) Unable to shrug off the SCAM taint.
During this decade, Congress means 2G scam, Coal scam, CWG scam and a host of other scams. It even made to recent UP election as SCAM acronym, but unfortunately Rahul Gandhi did not even understand the severity of that. He tried to snub Modi by owning SCAM acronym which made Rahul a laughing stock. Results were there to see after a few weeks. Congress decimated again. Congress needs fresh faces. Because right from Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, all the big faces are scam tainted now. Sonia and Rahul are out on bail in the National Herald corruption case. So anytime Congress opens the mouth on corruption of other parties, people will ask about Congress mega scams. That is hurting Congress at perception level.

6) Last and most importantly, unable to make head or tail of how to handle the Modi TsuNaMo sweeping India.

It is so serious now that for every one person living in a Congress ruled state, there are seven people living in a BJP ruled state. BJP has almost hit 2/3rd of India in terms of state governments. And they are nowhere near peak, as there is a lot of ground to still take over along the eastern coast of India. Narendra Modi’s clean image, hard working nature, and outstanding clarity in convincing a voter, is unmatched by the opposition. The only thing Congress and its allies are doing is to bad mouth Modi, which he is cleverly using to get even more votes!

So if Congress has to regain ground and relevance pan India, it has to:-
  1. Get better leadership. Rahul is not the right man and Sonia is one step into retirement. Priyanka Vadra is just for guest appearance. Old leaders like Kharge, Chidambaram, Gogoi, Digvijaya are not going to cut any longer. Get 15 to 20 young and visionary leaders, with one pan India appeal leader at the top. Nehru-Gandhi family’s charm has faded and next in lines are not at all going to help Congress.
  2. Get better vision, particularly more positive views to attract Indian youth. Minority appeasement, caste combinations and scaring India of RSS/BJP/Hindutva are so 20th century. Won’t work now.
  3. Look at long term planning for 2024. Modi’s wave is so popular now, that they stand little chance to challenge him in 2019 in the current organizational setup. Keep in mind - Congress is BJP’s only alternative nation-wide at present. AAP, TMC, DMK, ADMK, TDP, TRS, SP, BSP, RJD, SS, SAD, JDU, JDS, CPM, BJD etc. can’t even win 5 seats across 5 different states. Congress has the brand and ready made cadre pan India. It is just in a self destructing mode due to horrible management at the top. Start from top, and change will bring fruits by 2024.

PS: All images from Google Pictures. All credits to the original photographer or owner of the picture, who placed it for public consumption.