Monday, September 19, 2016

If India has to hit terror factories in Pakistan, be ready for a war with China!

It is about 32 hours since the attack on Uri army camp in India, by Pakistani terrorists. There is tremendous amount of anger in India, specifically in the sections of society which I normally don't see overreact on social media.

This was the front page of paper at my home - "We have had enough!"
Front page of New Indian Xpress, the day after Uri Attack

The overwhelming majority are screaming - Dear Prime Minister.. do something. do quickly..

  • That "do" can be full fledged war. 
  • It can be economic blockade.
  • It can be water stoppage for Sindhu and five rivers of Punjab going into Pakistan.
  • It can be surgical strikes inside Pakistan like India did inside Myanmar last year.
  • It can be as many as there are opinions on social media, papers and TV.

But the big question is.. Can India attack Pakistan this week?
  1. I am sure there is military will power. 
  2. I am sure there would be enough political will power. 
  3. I am sure India has plenty of financial cushion to do this. (Pakistan's GDP is smaller than just one state's in India - Maharashtra)
  4. I am sure internally there won't be much opposition to India for a small scale surgical strike. 

But still.. 69 years of handling of Jammu and Kashmir by India is something we have to look at right now. Can India afford to hit Pakistan where it hurts the most, for Pakistan's obsession with Jihadi terror export all these decades?

While I was looking for some pragmatic answers, amidst very loud war cries that I see in press, TV and social media, I happened to see this tweet set. A very thoughtful set of tweets by the user @vadakkus. From here onward, I am merely reproducing the fantastic probing analysis done by @vadakkus, with very little info from my side. Read it fully and then comment on what Indian government can do, should do, and most importantly, when to do. Vadakkus starts off a tweet storm on the entire Pakistan - India fiasco. There is more than what meets the eye here. And issue is NOT Kashmir. It also does not look like anything to do with Islam, Separatism, Human Rights, Army, AFSPA, Track 2 negotiation and many other things we hear on TV.

It is must deeper than that.. Geo politics!


Why is Pakistan obsessed with Kashmir? I have always wondered what makes Kashmir so attractive to Pakistan, that they are willing to keep the issue burning forever. What IS there?
{Prem Shekhar, a well known Kannada columnist informed a few weeks that Pakistan  had even offered to give up East Pakistan in 1950s, in return for Jammu and Kashmir on the sidelines of official discussions with India! So definitely it is not religion or Kashmiris.. it is much deeper than that. It was water sources then, but now much more deeper...}

Why is India so reluctant to hit back at Pakistan? Also why does India always seem to be unable to retaliate to Pakistan in kind (it should, totally) and pussyfoots around Pakistan, despite all the atrocities it commits in India from daily incursions in Kashmir to the Mumbai attacks. They spend too much money on all this and the country, despite no visible revenue-generating industry (terrorism no revenue) has managed to survive until today, develop nukes and has so much international clout? Where does it get its money from? Why?? Why is India reluctant to strike? There must be reasons.

Yes, water is an issue. The Indus and its tributaries. But where do they get money to keep the issue alive? There is more to this than water. Today, someone told me about this thing and I was stumped about how bloody obvious this is, and even then, NOBODY in India talks about this!

It is China... stupid.. It is China and CPEC: The "thing" is the CPEC: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. If you look at it closely suddenly everything falls into place. Kashmir, Balochistan, India's unwillingness to strike, silence of international community, everything else. Pakistan is just a front.  

The real sponsor is hiding behind.

Maybe it is because Indian method of viewing everything in black & white. Pakistan sponsors terrorism to get Kashmir. It is not that simple. Pakistan kept the Kashmir flame burning until the 1990s to meet their ends, when China conceived the CPEC and decided to take over. A bit on the CPEC as no one seems to have heard about it. China has a huge geographic handicap: no access to southern world oceans.

So Chinese shipments from Europe, Middle East, Africa have to travel all the way around India, Malacca and ASEAN. China has serious problems with most countries in that region due to its aggressive military posture.

CPEC Need. Source - Twitter. Please excuse since J&K map is not as per India's standards.
Why Pakistan is so important for Chinese economy? What if China could get a route through Pakistan to access the Arabian Sea? That line in blue. Look at it, so much distance, money saved! That, is the CPEC. A corridor of highways and railways will run from Kashgar in China to Gwadar in Pakistan (Baluchistan) on the Arabian sea near Iran border. And ALL the infrastructure and associated stuff for CPEC will be constructed for Pakistan by China, free or cost or for negligible loans.

What is CPEC?Four Six-lane Expressways from north to south Pakistan, four different routes. All main railway lines being upgraded to 160 kph double. A six to eight lane super expressway Karachi to Gwadar and Hyderabad Innumerable coal, thermal, solar and hydro power plants all across Pakistan. All of Gwadar, including a mega international airport! Then Hospitals, schools, colleges, tech institutes, even a Metro line in Lahore!

And of course, the capstone: reconstruction of the Karakoram highway to six to four lanes. All projects listed here. Click, zoom and read.
CPEC Map. Source Twitter. Please excuse since J&K map is not as per India's standards.
But why is Jammu and Kashmir involved here?  Now, on the Karakoram highway, this is where it matters most for India. It connects China and Pakistan, though India! Through Jammu and Kashmir, which legally acceded to India in 1947 October.  This is a route map of the Karakoram highway (grey). Look at the top, inside the red circle. It is Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, which legally belongs to India, but illegally occupied by Pakistan. Keep in mind, China also occupies illegally the eastern and northern part of Jammu and Kashmir - Shaksgam valley (gifted by Pakistan in 1960s) and Aksai Chin (occupied by China in 1950s when it annexed Tibet).

Karakoram highway location. Map from Wiki. Not per India's J&K map standards.
The highway passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The red line is the LOC. Pakistan and China are connected through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK for short). Pakistan calls this Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir, as Northern Territories sometimes. 

More on Karakoram highway: Soon to be a 4/6 lane highway through some of the world's toughest terrain. A high-capacity highway across the Himalayas!

Now, though the CPEC is a recent thing, the idea had taken birth long back. The Karakoram highway started building in 1959, opened in 1979! Possibly Pakistan had refused China access to Gwadar then as they could. But now they have no other choice but hand over to China.

Why CPEC? OIL: Gwadar is just 400 km away from Muscat and 500 from the Strait of Hormuz through which all Gulf oil passes. 12 hours at sea! Proximity to Africa: China virtually owns much of Africa today. Billions in investment, buys natural resources. Nothing better than this. Pakistan as a market: China will flood Pakistan and Gulf with its cheap products and make a windfall there too. Proximity to new friend Sri Lanka.If USA/UK (control Malacca strait - Singapore) or India in Indian ocean decide to choke it, China will have no problem as it has CPEC. 

But, all of CPEC and China's ambitions bearing fruit depends on the Karakoram highway. That depends on PoK continued to be occupied by Pakistan. 

Money Involved: With the CPEC, China has sunk close to 50 BILLION Dollars in Pakistan. Of course, China gets free access to all this infrastructure in Pakistan. With this, 20% of Pakistan's GDP is now Chinese. China has Pakistan now firmly by the b***s, so much so that Pakistan can now be China's 24th province. With so much invested and at stake, China wouldn't even think twice about ruthlessly suppressing any attack on Pakistan, because they own it now. 

Doesn't India know all this? Of course India knows all this. If we were to attack Pakistan, we would have to deal with China. Pakistan is small fry. China is not. 

Who would side with India? Mostly nobody. Why? Because China is involved. How international geopolitics work, most don't get that either. USA wants to support us because China makes it nervous. But US corporations are over invested in China, so Uncle Sam will look the other way. Russia - Don't even think about it. Putin has enough troubles at home, and India's pandering to Obama hasn't got him amused. Europe will sit just and watch (because China), and all of the Middle East will (clandestinely) support Pakistan for obvious reasons (Islam).

People think alliances between countries are forget like high school friendships - on emotional grounds of some sort - No. Not at all. International friendships are always based on "how can I benefit by allying", "what terrible can this guy do to me if I don't ally".

So, India will left out cold if it were to as much as touch Pakistan. We will mostly have to take on BOTH Pakistan and China. Mostly. Can India take on both Pakistan and China alone? From two (or three) flanks? We are surrounded by China's friends. What do we do? Dunno.

A bit more on the Karakoram highway: 1962, remember? What if the Chinese were testing the Indian waters before building the highway? China could've walked through India. Still, they withdrew. They were only testing India's resolve to defend PoK if it came to that. We have all but written off PoK. All Wikipedia articles tell all of PoK as "Pakistan". Not Pakistan administered", but Pakistan. Hurts :(

Here is the Khunjerab Pass (PoK): the "top" of India, the border between India and China, but now Pakistan. 

A sign in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir - Source Twitter
Here is the Karakoram highway near Gilgit in India (PoK) and under construction somewhere in the mountains. It should be obvious by now that China does NOT want India to reclaim its land lost to Pakistan in 1947 and 1948 - the strategic Karakoram ranges in Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir. It is as simply as that!
Karakoram Highway in PoK part of Jammu and Kashmir state. Pics - Twitter

Here is the entire map of the Karakoram Highway from Kashgar to Rawalpindi. Look where all it passes through. 
Karakoram highway map. Source - Twitter
China owns Pakistan for most part today: CPEC and all associated stuff are called "China-Pakistan Friendship" something or the other. No friendship there. Just Chinese business. China is not doing business with Pakistan. It is running its business in Pakistan. It is running Pakistan. China pays for protection. If things get push to shove, China can tell US: "We will nationalize your businesses if you don't tell India to withdraw". What will we do? 

What we should first realize is that there is no Pakistan. There is only China. Pakistan is just a front. We should deal accordingly. It is in China's interest to keep Kashmir burning. If there is peace in the valley, India MIGHT set its eyes on PoK. Chinese know that India has a strong Prime Minister today who can think of that. China does not want India to even think of getting PoK back. Of course, China did not light the Kashmir fire, but it certainly looks like it is them who keeps it burning that no consensus is reached. So, in addition to water, religion, ego, demographics and so on there is one more reason behind the Kashmir unrest: China and CPEC. 

Is dialogue with Pakistan sensible? It is utter foolishness to think that in such a case we can resolve this through dialogue! We talk one thing while issue is another! Issue is NOT what we think is the issue! We and our govt should first understand this. I am sure they have. Hopefully they aren't helpless. China is waging a proxy-proxy-deceptive war which we cannot understand or prove or blame. We need to mobilize some other way.

War with Pakistan? Vadakkus said at the end - I am not generally not a warmonger, but this has gone too far. We should strike. Do something. I only wish something be done about those 17 Indian soldiers who were killed without any provocation. They didn't have to die. Take on both China and Pakistan. Maybe. Can we? I don't know what we should do. Hopefully our hands aren't tied and someone is coming up with a plan to hit them. Hopefully. 

Baluchistan's role: Why Pakistan got all worked up when India raised Balochistan? Gwadar is in Balochistan. Much of CPEC infra passes through Balochistan. The CPEC is China's hope at lifting its sagging economy and securing its strategic position in the region. Its future maybe depends on it. Karakoram- Hindukush- Pamir region since ancient times been strategically sensitive. The Silk Road. China wants control of the new Silk Road. If India were to take PoK we would squeeze the Karakoram Highway shut. No more CPEC, Silk Road. China done for. That is the whole game. Highways are primary military conduits rather than civilian. Whoever controls the highway controls the region. 

Ultimately.. Pakistan's ultimate aim is to establish an Islamic caliphate. Apart from this China helps them through CPEC.  You might disagree with Modi et al but please support the govt right now in whatever action it takes. Politicking can wait. Wait two more months before taking any harsh decisions. Things might change post November.

What do you think India should do now, after reading this fully?

359 comments:

  1. Very well put. Off the top of my head I can only think of this: Get Subramaniam Swamy to negotiate with China. He knows Mandarin and the Chinese mentality and has even offered to talk to them in the past. There is no reason to not collaborate with China to build highways that would benefit a region's people and economy...Pakistan in the meanwhile should be made to bite its nails wondering what it can do when India China become mutually beneficial friends instead of foes. Ajit Doval, Narendra Modi and Manohar Parrikar, I believe, know what they are doing. All those gestures to China, and then the thundering support to Baluchistan...these are big geopolitical moves that NaMo has done with a specific goal in mind. Ignoring Pakistan selectively and visiting Nawaz Sherif were also part of a game plan. Its like a mighty chess game being played. Unfortunately and heart-breakingly we lost some of our soldiers...because of Pakistan's imbecile and immature SOPs...10 of 12 infiltrations were intercepted, and this horrific incident happened when troops were being changed. We have to deal with informers too...those vermin that dissolved all the deep assets posted in neighbouring countries. India will checkmate China and Pakistan. It has to!

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    1. Well said! I also believe "A Business for a business" is another way to resolve this. Make a robust business deal with China which it can not refuse.

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    2. Well put ur words India and its political parties have no strong will and I am sure many political parties big leaders does not even know and understand the issues properly as they lack of geo political knowledge and its serious ness most of them indulging in cast,creed and religious politics they work for them selves. Nation is secondary.

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    3. Well put ur words India and its political parties have no strong will and I am sure many political parties big leaders does not even know and understand the issues properly as they lack of geo political knowledge and its serious ness most of them indulging in cast,creed and religious politics they work for them selves. Nation is secondary.

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    4. Yes I think that is the best move of the hour, get mutual business benefiting partner with China and take over neighbor indirectly.

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    5. The only way to solve the impasse is to put very strict quality restrictions on Chinese goods flowing in Indian market. Yearly import is more than $50 billions. Cut that off or put a strong pinch. They would understand ONLY that language.

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    6. The only way to solve the impasse is to put very strict quality restrictions on Chinese goods flowing in Indian market. Yearly import is more than $50 billions. Cut that off or put a strong pinch. They would understand ONLY that language.

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    7. Who will pay 100 billion for the same goods which now have to be imported at higher costs? Think of handling Pak & our corrupt politicians 1st

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    8. Sujata, if India let china build express highway on its soil. It wont use it for trade purposes, it will mobilise its army and capture India. China is not to be trusted.

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    9. To wait till November - is it for US Presidential Election? After Election, US will be supporting Pak openly. And they, as usual, will play their card.

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    10. To wait till November - is it for US Presidential Election? After Election, US will be supporting Pak openly. And they, as usual, will play their card.

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    11. Waiting till November means "Winter is coming!!". As soon as winter his the Himalayan region, ground movement (infantry and Armoured Corps Regiments ) is close to impossible for Chinese troops (same strategy was taken by Field Marshal Sam in 1971 war). Also if Chinese wants to make a ground attack on Indian Soil, they will be extending there line of operation to long.

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    12. Nice and Good Analysis. Worthy reading and Understanding. But then, WHAT NEXT ??? Should we keep sitting like a mute spectator with only Bold Breezes of Words and Statements. We will only be seen and understood as just Barking Dogs and Howling Winds. Do we want that ??? Should we keep watching China to complete their Corridor and they become more Stronger with their Armies around or Should we wait for the US Presidential Elections so that they (President) being New, becomes neutral or favorable to Pakis (none of the newly elected President will support India, maybe Obama could but not anyone new) or Winters to approach, so that even Indian Military find it tough and hard to retaliate (Chinese armies too) and at Home front, we keep getting Pathankot and Uri Incidents and keep getting our Innocent Soldiers Martyr. Do we really need to push Business with chinese, CAN WE TRUST THEM, if we, then Do Not Trust Us. We are bigger Country and Economy than Pakistan, where China knows that it cant capture or Hold India by its b...s so it wont favor us more than Pakistan and we cant allow China to do Business in India at all, like CPEC. So what business are we talking about. All Said and Done, maybe its my aggression or Frustration of repeated Incidents, still I know and we know that WAR is un-avoidable with Pakistan, maybe today, maybe tomorrow, but it will. So why not today. We can crack these CPEC thing, maybe we can capture or hold back some of our region, maybe China too gets afraid of this retaliation and maybe, maybe, maybe.... not under-estimating that we can go worse, but then if not today, when we have reason and means, then WHEN !!!

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    13. Situation is tense ,but not so complex as projected . China ,has opted to support Pakistan purely for business interest . Hit the chinese interest by blocking inflow of their goods for Indian market . Support Afganistan militarily to create pressure on PAKISTAN . Support Baluchistan strategically ang generate international pressure . Support Baluchistanis to retaliat against China's indulgence in nefarious activities . Extend support to BALUCHISTAN as like FOR BANGLA DESH FREEDOM WAS INITIATED . create a yukti vahini force in BALUCHIS. BE RUTHLESS ON BORDERS TO COMBAT INFILTRATION . PLAY STRATEGIC DAMAGE CONCEPT TO DEMORALISE PAkistan and make china helpless with total economic activity blockade . war is only after these steps .

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    14. The clue of November by kiran is about the climatic condition in the region.Every things gets freezed over there.Access will be difficult.Water supply to Pakistan can be easily blocked.Indian army will be on better position comparative to opposition.Stratigical strikes will be easier on term of technology to end the terror camp in pok.

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    15. The clue of November by kiran is about the climatic condition in the region.Every things gets freezed over there.Access will be difficult.Water supply to Pakistan can be easily blocked.Indian army will be on better position comparative to opposition.Stratigical strikes will be easier on term of technology to end the terror camp in pok.

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  2. Good Analysis. So I guess we are stuck here in situation for a long long time. Also I would like to know any factor that Japan can play?

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    1. Of course it would be a new twist if Japan backs India !India must collectively work to bring all anti Chinese nations in one line to counter dragon knock ! We shd not forget Japan who once been nightmare to dragon

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    2. If really we attack than China will also attack from the back door, we will take our share, and China will take there share. It is advisable to win over Pakistan and take what are the areas of our interest. But remove Pakistan from the map.

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    3. If really we attack than China will also attack from the back door, we will take our share, and China will take there share. It is advisable to win over Pakistan and take what are the areas of our interest. But remove Pakistan from the map.

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    4. हमारी सिर्फ यह प्राथना है कि UN मैं जोर शोर के साथ पाकिस्तान को आतंकवादी देश घोषित करने की मांग राखी जाए
      और अंतरास्ट्रीय मंच पर आतंकवादी ठिकानो पर साँझा सैन्य कार्यवाही (Jonit Army Action under UN direction) की सहमती जुटाई जाए
      ऐसी कार्यवाहियां युद्ध नहीं कहलाती है

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    5. Every one talk of Pakistan and China, raise a finger at US, who is as Shikhandi in its fight against China, it is in US interest we fall against China, next 30 years in the name of China it will exploit our nationhood. Those Samaritan who were boasting planning ahead of 30 years have failed nation for next 60 years.. boastinhttp://kiranasis.blogspot.in/2016/09/if-india-has-to-hit-terror-factories-in.html?m=1glou
      d

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    6. Every one talk of Pakistan and China, raise a finger at US, who is as Shikhandi in its fight against China, it is in US interest we fall against China, next 30 years in the name of China it will exploit our nationhood. Those Samaritan who were boasting planning ahead of 30 years have failed nation for next 60 years.. boastinhttp://kiranasis.blogspot.in/2016/09/if-india-has-to-hit-terror-factories-in.html?m=1glou
      d

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  3. Let's hope that no one files petition in SC for this. If you remember, few days back(not even long ago), AG of the country has to explicitly tell the SC that this is not your domain.

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  4. Very impressed! Was already dying to look for some hard hitting data based article on this issue and I am glad, I found one

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  5. Why not go around PoK? Isn't that big a detour.

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    1. That was what I was thinking too!

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    2. Well analysed. Very well written a d presented. These are long term national issues requiring a focused approach by the govt. Here in India, our vibrant democracy has made us so fragile on national issues that there is no unity of thought towards our national problems. Hope good sense prevails a d political parties unite to support govt of India on this critical issue.

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    3. Not possible as this would mean involving Tajikistan & Afghanistan... POK is something which is ready due to our Chacha Nehru... I am thinking now was this done deliberately by Nehru to give China a free hand?

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    4. China might do it if India gives a retaliation.. The could use the Wakhan pass in Afghan to enter into pakistan.. But as said in the article, the infrastructure is already made in PoK.. So china is considering to press India for submission.. I we escalate the situation, we have to win the war against china.. Other option is becoming friends with China and edging out the petty Pakistan.. But are we ready to shed our egos and the ghosts of our past to extend friendship to China.. And if we do so, will they be a trustworthy friend or a backstabber..??
      Food for thought..! Lets see how Modiji handles this..? I support him.. The only Indian PM in the recent times with spine..!!

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  6. Do exactly what Sri Lanka did to LTTE. Eliminate all the separatists (all key people). Human rights will cry for some time like what they did when there were military actions in Sri Lanka. Suppress them brutally. Get your house in the order before thinking for cross border strike. Terrorists can't travel from Pakistan and strike in India on their own without locals support. Suppress them so brutally that no one can even think to support them.

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    1. You have a point! But there will much difficulties in finding out local supports.

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    2. Kiran Kumar S. Very well amalized and explained as well. Only one thing isissing out & that's Chinas interest in keeping cool with Russia and US & Russia's interest in selling weapons to India & PAK.
      Independence of Baluchistan can bemifit India the most (I think) as well US & Russithe.sell weapons..we can sponser the weapons..but, at the same time we should be able to get PoK back and convince China of safer Silk route..independent Baluchistan can protect the route in their territory and India in its territory..if there is any interest of Iran in independent Baluchistan..it should be it..

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    3. I think Mr. Kiran Kumar has said the right thing. Unless Sleeper Units are eradicated in India, we cannot stop the Terrorists from invading India almost every week.

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    4. War is never the answer.. We have no choice so we take it.. In the end of the day we have access to the seas. This will always be an advantage. We should focus on developing the economy and not burn our recourses. Never play to their hand.

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    5. War is never the answer.. We have no choice so we take it.. In the end of the day we have access to the seas. This will always be an advantage. We should focus on developing the economy and not burn our recourses. Never play to their hand.

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    6. You know that's never really a good solution. Brutality and suppression doesn't work and I have observed that first-hand coming from one of the worst hit militant state in the North-eastern part of the country.

      The army may go all out with guns blazing and take down militants and their support structure but in the process, there are bound to be collateral damages including lives of innocent civilians being lost. Some may call it the price of freedom that we all need to bear, but remember that brutality or injustice upon one single civilian who gets caught in the cross-fire tends to create more chaos and dissent against the security forces in the civil society.

      Such a situation leads to the civil society being more resolved, anti-establishment and supportive of any groups/ individuals who inflict damage to the establishment and the security forces in particular. The civil society at large do not care about the death of militants but they will become extremely resolved against the security establishment when such a situation occurs.

      Hence, its not about military brutality or clampdown, but its about trying to bring a change in the attitude of the civil society and if they feel themselves as part of the mainstream or a citizen of the country. Imagine such a military brutality or clampdown happening in Delhi or Maharasthra. There will be a national emergency.

      Solutions to internal strife can only be achieved through peaceful means and dialogue. It takes time, but its the only way to achieve long-lasting peace.

      Look at Nagaland now. It's a very peaceful state for the past 20 years since the time government entered into peaceful negotiations with the groups.

      I know i am going to get lot of flak for saying this, and people are going to term me as a dove, but the military is to be used for external fronts, and internal conflicts or strife can only be resolved through determination and long-term approach through peaceful means.

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    7. Kiran Kumar S. Very well amalized and explained as well. Only one thing isissing out & that's Chinas interest in keeping cool with Russia and US & Russia's interest in selling weapons to India & PAK.
      Independence of Baluchistan can bemifit India the most (I think) as well US & Russithe.sell weapons..we can sponser the weapons..but, at the same time we should be able to get PoK back and convince China of safer Silk route..independent Baluchistan can protect the route in their territory and India in its territory..if there is any interest of Iran in independent Baluchistan..it should be it..

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    8. Well said; Military action is needed in POK without delay.This will boost our soldiers moral too.About China;No body puts his hands in neighbour's Fire;Forget it that China will ever come to support useless pakis in war;Rather he will try to shake hand with India.So Strike first then C...everything will be over in less than a week time

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  7. To contain China we also have do something pro active like we are planning to do with Pakistan by raising issue of Baluchstan, Pastunabad, Sindh and POK. Push captured Jihadis from Indian Territory into muslim majority disturbed region of Xinjiang in China. The aim of the Jihadi is to die after killing Kafirs, for him Chinese are also Kafir so he won't be having problem to blow himself up in Chinese areas. Start giving Military training to people of Tibet (directly or indirectly), at one call of Dalai Lama thousands of his followers from world over will join in to push for military solution to liberate Tibet from China. All Buddhist living in all parts of the world including China can be mobilized to push for the cause of freedom to Tibet. Once highly religious Buddhist people decide to take on atheist China militarily China won’t be able to handle it. Taiwan and Hong Kong are ready to be inflamed against main land China, they just need little encouragement.

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    1. Only encouragement wont help. They are far far behind from China when it comes to firepower. And as you know, only protest by Buddhist monks in Tibet will be and has been brutally suppressed by Chinese. In the end, Chine is a closed society, hence you will never get to know how/when the suppression is happening.

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    2. Mr. Rajeev Sharma has shown the only way in which we can fight China. Mr. Modi must give it a thought.

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  8. @kiran ...u said wait till November...things may change....what points would u like to add to those changes...Thank u for the article.

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    1. US presidential results will be IN.

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    2. Also there is SAARC summit in November. Things do tend to take place at such summits and hopefully something good, no matter how minute may come out of it.

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    3. Waiting till November means "Winter is coming!!". As soon as winter his the Himalayan region, ground movement (infantry and Armoured Corps Regiments ) is close to impossible for Chinese troops (same strategy was taken by Field Marshal Sam in 1971 war). Also if Chinese wants to make a ground attack on Indian Soil, they will be extending there line of operation to long.

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  9. 1..short of war help afganistan militarily and economically..establish indo afgan military along pak border
    2..help baluchistan financially .create major unrest there..
    3..provide altaf hussain ,mojahir leader finance and create enirmous unrest in sind
    4..provide armaments to mohajirs and baluch through afganistan intensively.
    5..same ditto with POK AND GILGIT BALTISTAN
    6..make pak feel unsafe..and vulnarabke and desperate
    7..while modernise army be vijilant along the entire borders with the help of israel
    8..arm vietnam philipines heavily.but short of directly involving in south china sea ..keep the relations warm with china
    9..invest heavily in infra structure in kashmir ,schools,hospitas,industries..etc
    10..ignore hurriet but deeply involve rest of kashmiri leaders like pandits,buddists,dogras,and quarentine rest of the part of kashmir fromb troubles..involve them deeply in national politics by making them leaders
    11..invest heavily in modernisation of army with a declaration that no first use of nuclear war heads is under reconsideration.
    12..improve and try to make india an economic superpower inviting investments from china and consider an economic coridor from china to mumbai too with investments from china

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    1. Good idea, where does money come to invest so much? we already have so much to invest in infrastructure and defence....

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    2. Congratulations to Mr. Kedilaya for showing the right way to tackle India's trouble generating neighbors. Mr.Modi should implement these suggestions which will make India a World power

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    3. very good article every politician should read this even though they dont understand as they will only understand cast politics,beef politics,anti india slogans,eating drama at dalit's home and criticizing the PM for every thing which they can't do

      Delete
  10. 1..short of war help afganistan militarily and economically..establish indo afgan military along pak border
    2..help baluchistan financially .create major unrest there..
    3..provide altaf hussain ,mojahir leader finance and create enirmous unrest in sind
    4..provide armaments to mohajirs and baluch through afganistan intensively.
    5..same ditto with POK AND GILGIT BALTISTAN
    6..make pak feel unsafe..and vulnarabke and desperate
    7..while modernise army be vijilant along the entire borders with the help of israel
    8..arm vietnam philipines heavily.but short of directly involving in south china sea ..keep the relations warm with china
    9..invest heavily in infra structure in kashmir ,schools,hospitas,industries..etc
    10..ignore hurriet but deeply involve rest of kashmiri leaders like pandits,buddists,dogras,and quarentine rest of the part of kashmir fromb troubles..involve them deeply in national politics by making them leaders
    11..invest heavily in modernisation of army with a declaration that no first use of nuclear war heads is under reconsideration.
    12..improve and try to make india an economic superpower inviting investments from china and consider an economic coridor from china to mumbai too with investments from china

    ReplyDelete
  11. the article is so sensitive instead of taking action on Pakistan it is better to stop business relations with immediate effect at least we can able to stop in flow of business funds to China from India and hopefully dragon will forced to rethink about their policy and in that space of time we can acquire sophisticated military Weapons and then easily take steps against Pakistan and try to liberate POK from the clutches of China

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are right. Stopping Imports from China and Pakistan will force them to reconsider their aggressive policy.

      Delete
    2. You are right. Stopping Imports from China and Pakistan will force them to reconsider their aggressive policy.

      Delete
  12. Nice article. But I am wondering how only 4 terrorists
    were able to cause this much damage?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. similar type of attach took place earlier too in J&K only. That time too, they came through drainage.

      Delete
  13. Nice article. But I am wondering how only 4 terrorists
    were able to cause this much damage?

    ReplyDelete
  14. I did not know this is so complex. Thanks for the analysis. PM Modi tried a lot to befriend China while keeping them at a safe distance because it is like befriending a dragon. But I guess Modi is like Chanakya. He will surely devise ways to keep China at bay. However there are many selfish and ignorant enemies to him inside India than Pak or China!

    ReplyDelete
  15. The best move here would be cut off all economic & resources like water to Pakistan & give China a warning by stopping their business in India.
    We're among biggest market/consumers of Chinese goods

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes! China too needs a strong message from India.

      Delete
  16. The analysis may be correct but looks like work of some Pak/China agent. It want to create false sense of danger in Indian minds.
    I have been given to understand that India has been planning to fight simultaneously on two fronts of Pakistan and China for last 50 years . I repeat preparing for last 50 years. China could not defeat conclusively Vietnam a very small country
    than India. So atleast India can take some surgical action against Pakistan. At present China is under international pressure due to South China Sea dispute. At present China is not in a position to wage war on India on behalf of Pakistan.
    I reject above analysis as Pakistan propaganda.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Bingo! China won't intervene on behalf of Pakistan atleast for another 10 years, by when Chinese investments are fully embedded in Pakistan's financial system. While I won't go so far to say the author is doing Pakistani propaganda, he's acutely paranoid in geopolitical sense.

      Delete
    3. I disagree with your some points:

      1. China has done magnificent development in their military assets after Vietnam war, hence this is wrong to compare these 2 time frames.
      2. China is NOT under pressure as it rejects international tribune's rules on south china sea and has been militarizing the area.

      However, I would likw to add some points:

      1. Of course, China won't go for war with India as it may lead to economical destabilization. And for now, south china sea is its 1st priority. However, China has capability to strike India with help from Pak whenever necessary.
      2. There are many things other than war which can block one country's interest.

      Delete
    4. This is not fake analysis, I think. It's a detailed analysis. The issue is not so simple as it looks. It demands great deal of planning and long term action.

      Delete
  17. Great research...I think the biggest mistake India did was failure of Pat governments who did not mention specifically that PoK is disputed region and hence no investments shall be allowed by China...Congress failed to do this and hence lets b clear that it should not come to power again

    Secondly, Indian should work towards Independence of Balochistan...support them on global front, through financially and politically...by keeping China in confidence that CPEC will not impacted...that way Baloch will be Indian ally...CPEC will operate but India will have its say...we cannot stop CPEC..but v can indirectly control it thru this move

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lets not repent about past! Blunders have been made and unfortunately, we are facing the consequences now.

      I agree with your 2nd para stating "A business for a business" attitude. However, freedom of Baloch is a long term process, which may take 15 years atleast.

      Delete
    2. Yes! Independent Baluchistan will give a foot hold in between the CEPC.

      Delete
  18. If that highway is so important why not India takes over POK & offer that highway to china. China just wants that highway /CPEC, for china it doesn't matter if that Highway lies with India.
    This way chinese will still gets what they want, India gets POK where major terrorists are nurtured. All this can be stopped.
    If we dont do anything now this issue will pass through generations, getting worse.

    ReplyDelete
  19. If that highway is so important why not India takes over POK & offer that highway to china. China just wants that highway /CPEC, for china it doesn't matter if that Highway lies with India.
    This way chinese will still gets what they want, India gets POK where major terrorists are nurtured. All this can be stopped.
    If we dont do anything now this issue will pass through generations, getting worse.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think for China,negotiating with Pakistan should be much cheaper than with India. That's why they don't want the land to go in India's hand again.

      Delete
  20. I think after reading this... If this is the true intention and the proxy proxy war thing... The best is join hands with China sign a treaty that let us fight pakis and once we take over POK China will have unhindered access to highways there... It won't hurt us at all as they as it is have a free access to it... Kill the middleman and get your land back...

    ReplyDelete
  21. Yes,I think India should understand chinese interest in Pakistan and it is because of CPEC,as this will boost chinese economy to become world superpower in terms of GDP and can further dictate terms in UNO like US.CPEC is bigest investment in Pakistan and it is spreaded all over Pakistan.So this will bring overall developmment in Pakistan which is good.
    For India this chinese investment is not a big deal seeing the reserve of $370bn.India should play pure politics and give assurance of it's support on south china sea provided ,China is ready to not support Pakistan on any of it's internal matter,Therefore India can also give assurance of chinease investment in Pakistant will keep intact from any Indian action.
    Thereafter India should carve out Balochistant from Pkistant,make a separate democratic country like Afganistant and at the same time free POK from Pakistan.
    To carve out Balochistant very important is to have a Baloch leader who has national presence.This is to understand that
    1:China can not bring their troops in Pakistant land to bring down wide spread unrest in Baloch.
    2:Baloch people should also understand that these chinese investment has been done for growth of Chinease economy ,however growth in Pakistan and Baloch GDP is just a fraction wrt.china and it is just eyewash.
    3:The Baloch governments overall focus would be towards chinese projects and their development even the power and other infrastructure shall be used for their transportation purpose which is also free of cost.Nobody is concerned for Baloch own population and their development.
    4:Whereas baloch could have very easily charged their cost of strategical locations from china and with this money they would have developed their economy.
    5:The power of Baloch local government would go on shrink and later they would become toy in chinese hand.
    6:There are many small countries which are even lesser than baloch geography but their GDP is more than todays Pakistan.
    7:Balochistan should think for becoming bigest ally and partner with India which is world 3rd biggest Economy.
    India should get the support from local leaders of baloch and show symmpathy on world forum.
    May be continued.....

    ReplyDelete
  22. Analysis is based on today's perception of economic scenario. China is taken today to be Goliath based on huge population and a massive army. Besides its growing technology. It has its own Muslim population who can get jihadi mood. It would be a deterrent when assumes its size as it does all over the world. It is the cancer in Europe. It's symptoms are visible in USA. Besides some day all Muslim countries would be crying to save them from ISIS. Presently we are emotionally blackmailed by our hurt pride. Individually the death of 20 jawans is devastating, but in army language it is a juckmi. A small juckmi. Death for a jawan is incidental. For brass in the army is untoward and ought to have been avoided. The oil wealth is not a permanent revenue. It is bound to dry up. Else the vacuum at the bottom of earth created by siphoning of will trigger an earthquake. These are distant possibilities. My final conclusion: We need absorb this shock of loss of pride and emotions. In a country of 130 crores, 20 are lost but it is taken to be a national pride. Wise man will wait.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would say waiting infinitely is not a good idea .. we need to strike back at the Pakistani fissures and in double measure ..... Surely we have the money to do that !!!!

      Delete
  23. Ok, but one must consider India's share with China's economy growth, i think that is much more than with Pakistan.
    So china also need to rethink about her investment option and future prospect, because one cant grow buisness in highly instable area and of course islamic factors are there too which goes against China.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I am also sure something is being "cooked" at the. Government level. Better not to talk too much about this via this medium. We should all have some patience and let our government think they all know what is what.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Just flexing muscle or sound bytes is beyond pointless. Modi will never any election if he does not show grit. Back in the days, Shivaji et al never thought long and hard for this long about the consequences when muslim rulers time and again troubled him. May be because there is a time for everything. Shivaji lost few of the battles and ended up paying reparations but that didn't deter him from striking. And thats precisely why they feared him. MMS has reduced us to an army of misfits with his posturing (or lack there of). Modi adopting a similar stance will be hard to digest within his own ranks.

    All said and done, its tough to be Modi and Doval right now. With so much of pressure to strike at the earliest, its easy to get it wrong. I for one feel a strike is due. The whole of nation may not stand with him but that'll broadcast a very powerful message. If china spoils the party, so be it.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Excellent
    So came to know why and how we stuck.
    If India deals with China,that India will transport it's oil from Muscat to China through Indian region, China will not enter but he will get his oil too,
    So we can became friends.

    ReplyDelete
  27. There is much to what you say!! China is also the Bull in this Shop that needs to be tackled and soon !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  28. If a rubber invades ur house, gags u and tries to maim u, won't it be foolish not to use ur strength to overpower him thinking of future repercussion.... the same miscreant gets emboldened and ventures to rub u again and, u leave him again even if u njoy utmost superiority over him... it's just not wise to say the least.....

    ReplyDelete
  29. If a rubber invades ur house, gags u and tries to maim u, won't it be foolish not to use ur strength to overpower him thinking of future repercussion.... the same miscreant gets emboldened and ventures to rub u again and, u leave him again even if u njoy utmost superiority over him... it's just not wise to say the least.....

    ReplyDelete
  30. Will someone please forward this article to Ms. Arnab Goswami, Rahul Shivshankar and Maroof Raza ? This issue is far more convoluted than devising a strategy for getting more TRPs. An excellent article: I wonder why mainstream( print) media is not talking about this China dimension?

    ReplyDelete
  31. Well the analysis reminds me of Age of Empires. One of the most common strategies to defeat the enemy team is to break their trade routes. A simple way of doing so is by helping China to build trade routes through India.

    At a very basic level, create emporting stations at key Chinese borders (One near Uttarakhand and one near Darjeeling or on the Bramhaputra) and corresponding ports near Katchh and West-Bengal/Odisha. Emporting stations are ones where goods from a foreign vehicle are loaded into domestic vehicles and transported through the domestic routes (all these while the goods still belong to the foreign country). The rail and river links through Indian soil and the transportation vehicles used to carry these Chinese goods between these emporting stations will be owned by India. This way Chinese goods would travel through India under Indian supervision. For this India can charge a small amount to China. Also if emporting stations are raised on the Brahmaputra, then it would be of high interest for China to maintain water levels in the river (benefit for India).

    By doing this India will eliminate Chinese interest on building infrastructure in Pakistan and also incentivize China against maintaining trade routes through a highly hostile geography in Pakistan. Also this would open not one but two trade routes for China that will give China easy access to Africa, Suez and Australia. As far as India is concerned, this trade route will be a reason for China to maintain good relationship with India instead of looking at it as an enemy state.

    Once these trade routes are developed, I don't see any reason for China to depend on Pakistan and hence it will eliminate Chinese support to Pakistan. As far as the Silk route is concerned, it can bypass Pakistan entirely by routing through either Kazakshtan or through Tajikisthan and Uzbekisthan. India can also help here and get gas pipelines directly from Afghanistan through the same route and not through Pakistan.

    This would entirely cut off Pakistan and then the Indian cause would be easy to achieve.

    Please note: This is just an empirical strategy coming out of an idle mind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good idea. Keep the thief as guard and your goods will always be safe.

      Delete
    2. Good idea. Keep the thief as guard and your goods will always be safe.

      Delete
  32. Indeed it is a great eye opener to all of us that what kind of planning n strategy CPEC is doing. We must play our cards very cautiously n smartly. Yes, our course of actions depend on US Presidential election. We might need to wait till Nov.

    ReplyDelete
  33. A war stretegy cant b discussed here.
    China has always been pakistan allay (economically too) since 1962.prior to that pakistani favoured india against china.
    After 1962 pak went to china flank seeing indian defeat.
    China cld do no help in 1971 war.even china asked pak nt to open western front in kashmir.
    So war is stetegy : where to hit,when to hit ,hot to hit,how long to hit .
    Take israel into confidence for supply of arteleries and intelligence support.
    Surgical strike becking by army navy air force to show os strenth is required. Atleast a message to b given to world ,not only pak n china.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Very nice article ...in present situation the only solution is to hit the terrorist camps in POK and not to declare any war. Unite all other countries against Terrorism instead of against Pakistan.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Great research!
    This means India can never hit pok or pak, unless pak declares official war against India.
    There should be some strong solution to overcome this situation!
    Or wait till pak dies!

    ReplyDelete
  36. Great research!
    This means India can never hit pok or pak, unless pak declares official war against India.
    There should be some strong solution to overcome this situation!
    Or wait till pak dies!

    ReplyDelete
  37. I agree totally that CPEC is very important to China & Pak, if Modi agrees to up the ante militarily or may be even surgically hits the Karakoram highway, there may be some collateral damage as missiles will b exchanged with Pak, but soon China will force Pak to pull back the jihadis, China cant take instability in & around CPEC/PoK. So China will push Pak to control Jihadis. There is a small risk of full fledged war with Pak. But China will definitely not allow situation to escalate as Indian military is not so weak, it can shut down the CPEC effectively in case of war, So there shud b some retaliation against Pak now, which gives a clear hint that if Pak sends terrorists to Kashmir, India will launch offensive, which the Chinese wont like. as they want CPEC unhindered. India shud impose some cost on China & Pak, that jugular vein is CPEC. its a gr8 leverage opportunity for PM Modi, which can change the course of history, and atlast bring peace to the Kashmiri Valley

    ReplyDelete
  38. Good analysis to be kept in mind for deciding the multifold strategy for suitable action. 1. MFN status to PAk to be stopped forthwith. 2.All business and cultural exchange including sport events to be stopped/ banned. 3. Indian embassy and staff shd be called off. 4. Bus to PAk shd be stopped. 5. Visa for Pakis to be denied. 6. All Pakis employed anywhere in Indian govt outfits to be sacked. Corporate sector also to be approved on similar lines. 7. Choke all remittances from PAk to India and vice versa. 8. Water and other resources to the extent feasible shd be dried up. 9.All PAk govt offices and staff to be closed. 10. All help, funding etc to all separatists organization shd be withdrawn. 11. Emergency like situation to be created for border areas with more powers to army to stop infiltration. 12.Keep alive the issue of POK and Baluchistan at various forums and tactical support to all related activities. And all such activities which is mainly internal.
    On external front based on the analysis we can not keep quiet. Otherwise like POK let us not loose the momentum generated for batch and international awareness etc.
    China is not going to come directly nor the situation is going to get converted into full fledged war. PAk itself is under tremendous internal pressure. Keep in good mood the smaller countries for south china issue, do surgical strikes on terror camps, engage china on Security council membership issue and other business and investment horizon. Let us not wait till Nov for American election. Obama administration is with India so take advantage of the situation and bring all round support. If by chance China intervenes, them America, Japan and Russia can be used tactically to thwart any such attempt.

    The time is not and right for a strike and message to be delivered without any further delay. All circumstances are favourable, PAk is otherwise already separated, pull all pressure thru Afghanistan, Baluchistan, POK, America, strong action against separatists in Kashmir, bad treatment of terrorists and thus engage PAk in its own creation.

    ReplyDelete
  39. If this is the real issue.. Then we must support China and make highway for them in our own country.. Then we both... China and India can unite much strongly and guess no other country will dare looking this way

    ReplyDelete
  40. A very good analysis minus a very critical issue... THE CPEC is almost non starter, because of the same reasons that make it sound so lucrative to China... the demographics of the places it passes through... The local Pakistani communities are now realizing and this is a fact, now that the details of the US$ 46 billion are emerging, that the only value addition their economy will have is providing Dhabas, Brothels and Gas Stations along the route and nothing else... The planned Power Plants are not viable, being based on Imported Coal and for environmental reasons, which means there cannot be additional industrialization because Pakistan has severe Energy Crisis.

    The whole scenario is Pakistan's planning as without Kashmir, they will loose out on their biggest Sugar Daddy, China, who needs to keep pumping liquid cash into the Pakistani system to ensure security for the proposed corridor.

    With a huge cash surplus, China is spending a few millions just to have a back up in place incase the trade routes from the South China sea are blocked, and Pakistan milking them for the few millions is something they do not mind, considering the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear state and in case of any real war like situations, they can use Pakistani land to good use.

    The main reason for the present increase in Kashimir violence is also connected to the recent political gains made by India in the Middle East, where-by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE are more India friendly than ever before, and Saudi is refusing the be milked like earlier... Pakistan is desperate to have India react militarily in Kashmir, which as usual will be portrayed as "Anti-Islam" in the ME region...but this time i.e. for the past 6 months, their efforts are not clearly not working.

    Pakistan has no where to go, with a failing economy, a huge debt crisis, falling literacy levels, multiple power centers and virtual abandonment by its overseas diaspora, this is the only way forward for the Pakistani Army, who run the country anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  41. If this is the real issue.. Then we must support China and make highway for them in our own country.. Then we both... China and India can unite much strongly and guess no other country will dare looking this way

    ReplyDelete
  42. i am sorry to say this but people of india voted for Modi since the were fed up with status quo but on this issue particularly there is no change from status .. only ninda ,gor ninda,kadi ninda .. what is difference between manmohan and modi then ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly my thoughts and probably you echo the whole of India's sentiment.

      Delete
  43. Yeah let's wait for 2 more months and watch many more of our soldier brothers and sisters die, crib more about it and keep waiting. Who is not willing to support the government? Everybody wants action. The PM has been all words with no action. Just MMS with a big mouth

    ReplyDelete
  44. OK. China is main player here and it's playing with India. Now what India can do is support Philippines and Vietnam in South China Sea dispute. USA is already there. So we don't have to worry much. What we have to do is to become vocal about our stand in South China Sea. We know how much China want that area. And then if China consult India India can negotiate with China. If Chinese are going to help Pakistan on kashmir issue we should help USA Philippines and Vietnam openly. Then we will have leverage on China. India should decide here it's stand. Choose its friend carefully and tread forward.

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  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  46. Thank you kiran ji for elaborating whole topic

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  47. India can finish Pakistan and then allow the Chinese corridor to exist thru India occupied Pakistan.

    In this way India gets what it requires... More land.. and let China keep the corridor.
    Alternative route can be given to China for their corridor.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Good analysis .I read it before also but in details with maps this time only .No matter whatever the situation is but we Indians can confidently say 'we are not so easy ' .

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  49. Good analysis .I read it before also but in details with maps this time only .No matter whatever the situation is but we Indians can confidently say 'we are not so easy ' .

    ReplyDelete
  50. It's wonder full geo-political analysis,but to prevent killings of soldiers,immediate action is inevitable for wrong doings of Paksuppported extremist.it is high time.

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  51. Thank you for bringing in the reality through your article. It was must and essential for citizen to know the face value of India and it's counterparts. I see it's a moment to think sensibly then getting carried away with emotions and this will require drop of patience amongst citizens, agreed there was a PAK sponsored terror attack. However reacting on this is difficult then what we seems. Not because we are incapable of doing it but, because of few reason a) It's true that India doesn't have true support or a friend with benefits to join us in case a covert operations turn down to be a full fledged war and it surely will because of China's interest on PAK. So we looking at 2 or more on 1 (India), which means it could be a economic loss, Territorial loss or back to stoneage may be. b) Modi Government, on a spotlight of the world and is under immense pressure to take any military action because when we compare our economy & financial success with that off Pak, Pak stands no match to us. Means we have more to loose in case it gets on full war with them. Unless Mr. Doval and team worksout a plan to answer them in their own language, in a firm voice. c) Also, if we think from a different prospective, why are we being provoked, because they want us to make first move by placing military in to action and then they it give them a reason retaliate and name us bad in eyes of the world. However I also see things to go worst if we do not react to such strikes as well. We need to show resistance and be affirmative in our actions. I would say a retaliation which can a havoc and making them think of India's existence on this entire territorial fight. There are few possible strategies that we can try on Pakistan, which will convey our message effectively but hard for them to decode it and show it to the world on their sufferings from it
    a) Suicide Bombers attack on Jeish Mohammad headquarters b) Destroy ISI headquarters c) Internally deploy IT hackers team to track on their latest success of its arsenal's and other strategies with China and korea d) Understanding their base of economy and destroying the source of income. Making PaK vulnerable to live and indulge in all sorts of internal issues. It could be more, but few things that needs to be controlled is terrorism, which we will have to go and weed out in order to protect our soil. At a same time. Making it difficult for China to progress on its future plans be it sea route or Gwadar. Making sure US and Japan maintains a constant pressure on China and stops it's growth. I also see a great scope of a new venture here which can take us out of this turmoil (Chakravyu). At the end of the day China and India both are businessmen, which brings few things in common between us a) Both are ambitious b) Both are starving for power and good market. And I believe these are the two main common point here. As we need to make China realise of the fact that if India would have get in a war with China and Pak, surely India have the stealth and instruments to damage China severely. And this war wont just take India, but even China's economy down to great time. And to run a business it requires a favourable environment, and under this war like situation no body can do a business. Hence a coalition deal is possible, which can favour both Asian tigers to defend each other and grow. And this would bring a fullstop to Pakistan's atrocities by large - Mihir Parekh.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Thank you for bringing in the reality through your article. It was must and essential for citizen to know the face value of India and it's counterparts. I see it's a moment to think sensibly then getting carried away with emotions and this will require drop of patience amongst citizens, agreed there was a PAK sponsored terror attack. However reacting on this is difficult then what we seems. Not because we are incapable of doing it but, because of few reason a) It's true that India doesn't have true support or a friend with benefits to join us in case a covert operations turn down to be a full fledged war and it surely will because of China's interest on PAK. So we looking at 2 or more on 1 (India), which means it could be a economic loss, Territorial loss or back to stoneage may be. b) Modi Government, on a spotlight of the world and is under immense pressure to take any military action because when we compare our economy & financial success with that off Pak, Pak stands no match to us. Means we have more to loose in case it gets on full war with them. Unless Mr. Doval and team worksout a plan to answer them in their own language, in a firm voice. c) Also, if we think from a different prospective, why are we being provoked, because they want us to make first move by placing military in to action and then they it give them a reason retaliate and name us bad in eyes of the world. However I also see things to go worst if we do not react to such strikes as well. We need to show resistance and be affirmative in our actions. I would say a retaliation which can a havoc and making them think of India's existence on this entire territorial fight. There are few possible strategies that we can try on Pakistan, which will convey our message effectively but hard for them to decode it and show it to the world on their sufferings from it
    a) Suicide Bombers attack on Jeish Mohammad headquarters b) Destroy ISI headquarters c) Internally deploy IT hackers team to track on their latest success of its arsenal's and other strategies with China and korea d) Understanding their base of economy and destroying the source of income. Making PaK vulnerable to live and indulge in all sorts of internal issues. It could be more, but few things that needs to be controlled is terrorism, which we will have to go and weed out in order to protect our soil. At a same time. Making it difficult for China to progress on its future plans be it sea route or Gwadar. Making sure US and Japan maintains a constant pressure on China and stops it's growth. I also see a great scope of a new venture here which can take us out of this turmoil (Chakravyu). At the end of the day China and India both are businessmen, which brings few things in common between us a) Both are ambitious b) Both are starving for power and good market. And I believe these are the two main common point here. As we need to make China realise of the fact that if India would have get in a war with China and Pak, surely India have the stealth and instruments to damage China severely. And this war wont just take India, but even China's economy down to great time. And to run a business it requires a favourable environment, and under this war like situation no body can do a business. Hence a coalition deal is possible, which can favour both Asian tigers to defend each other and grow. And this would bring a fullstop to Pakistan's atrocities by large - Mihir Parekh.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Nice article and completely agree that China is the hidden player. But India has done lots to counter it like the following

    1.) China Takes Trincomalee Port in Sri Lanka - India shows interest in South China Sea with the Help of Myanmar

    2.) China takes Gwadar Port in Pakistan - India goes and takes of Chabahar Port in Iran

    Now the sea trade going round the Indian peninsula costs them a lot of time than money as stated in the article. Hence this road has to be built if Pakistan has control of J&K. The entire arms and funding is by China.

    What should India do ? Here are my suggestions

    1.) Ban export of Cotton to China ( Their apparel industry will go for a toss ) What India has done in the past 3 years is supported Bangladesh largely and boosted their export. Which has hurt China.

    2.) Ban all Pakistani artists in India whether Music or Movies, it will hit them below the belt.

    3.) The Movie industry should stop seeing Pakistan as a major market for their films,

    4.) Suspension of Trade ties ( total) with Pakistan , well this will also have impact on our traders but high time we isolated them.

    5.) While considering the last option as the Military is also necessary as we one of the largest Military in the world and when a few idiots daringly attack us twice and that also the army , they send a weird signal to the world . That means they have lost the fear of the most important institution of this country.

    We have always been attacked and resisted but never been aggressive. Its time we did that, we have a great foreign reserve and self sufficient . We also have great ties with the world so its time we did the unexpected.

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  54. To add a point, indians in US to support Trump .

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  55. To add a point, indians in US to support Trump .

    ReplyDelete
  56. There's a simple answer to this lure china with money, e.g we can invite china for a similar project through india...consequences would definitely be there but pak would be isolated...a simple tactics says, if you want to kill your enenmy then simply cut his throat.

    ReplyDelete
  57. There's a simple answer to this lure china with money, e.g we can invite china for a similar project through india...consequences would definitely be there but pak would be isolated...a simple tactics says, if you want to kill your enenmy then simply cut his throat.

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  58. Take a look at this video, explains the support China will provide to help Pakistan in case India launches a war against Pakistan! It is a long video, but I would watch this and understand the video than watching a movie.
    Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4RaCJrT51w

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  59. Is that why namo is asking the world to invest here? That will force them to side with us to protect their interests! He is just too good!!!

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  60. Please get ur knowledge right...Don't show pok as part of pak...it belongs to India...Many of ur maps are wrong... Infact all of them..

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  61. Please get ur knowledge right...Don't show pok as part of pak...it belongs to India...Many of ur maps are wrong... Infact all of them..

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  62. Total crap, I know this thing from more than year, but India is not afraid of it, they want indian market or pakistani ass? and we all know the answer. if agreed India also can give way to china ..

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  63. Another thought...I think India should sponsor a civil war in Pak...the civilians there should be made realise that since Independence the country has gone no where...only it's image has deriorated on global arena...buy out a media house in Pak n publish the same

    I personally believe that most of Pak population is not interested in Kashmir...it is only the power hungry politicians who take advantage of poor people and convert them in Jihadis thru funding from other neighbors

    With larger spread of civil resistance like in most middle east countries..Pak govt will be under sever threat

    But yes...this will be a long drawn process...

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  64. Another thought...I think India should sponsor a civil war in Pak...the civilians there should be made realise that since Independence the country has gone no where...only it's image has deriorated on global arena...buy out a media house in Pak n publish the same

    I personally believe that most of Pak population is not interested in Kashmir...it is only the power hungry politicians who take advantage of poor people and convert them in Jihadis thru funding from other neighbors

    With larger spread of civil resistance like in most middle east countries..Pak govt will be under sever threat

    But yes...this will be a long drawn process...

    ReplyDelete
  65. Modi’s Golda Meir wrath of god moment – 1, Part 2 soon ... https://unofficialy.wordpress.com

    ReplyDelete
  66. I think a practical approach can be from a Trade and Commerce perspective:

    India needs $2 Trillion of investment and is a growth market for next 30-40 years
    1) Do a deal with P5 countries of UNSC, get Balochistan liberated as an Independent country also get POK,Galgit and Baltistan if need be by force
    2) Sindh and Pakhtoostan will eventually become independent.
    3) Threaten China if it does not fall in line than India will focus on liberation of Tibet and Ughyurs not to mention the ongoing SCS issue

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  67. Deal with China. Make them understand that Pakistan won't be any better than Xinjiang. Sooner or later China will have to deal with Pakistani brand of Islam. Negotiate/work with them to get back POK and liberate Balochistan. Lay down a road through Afghanistan to either Gwadar(assuming free Balochistan) or Chabahar. Economic annihilation of Pakistan is one of the solutions to have lasting peace in the region.

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  68. There are few other issues as well which you guys have ignored. 1)Indian sponsore terrorism, bom blasts, Kalbhoshan yadev.. Pakistan has higlighted all these things at various international forums with solid proofs which even India cant deny. 2) The power of Pakistan army. 3)Their ISI.. which despite all the trobles has managed to fight against RAW CIA MI6 etc successfully. 4) Pakistan's nuclear arsenals. 5)Being Muslims they are least scared of death. They dont mind dying for their country, cos there are billions of ther muslims in the world which keep the Islamic flag flying high. 6) India is the only Hindu country. In case of nuclear attack or war Hindus will almost vanish from this world. 7) The moment war will prolong Pak will happily use their nuclear weapons which are more powerful and destructive what India has 8) Khalistan movement?? Deep inside their hearts, Sikhs want independent Punjab, separate from India. 9) In case of war Pakistan will go all out as they have nothing much to lose. 10) The moment war will start Afghanistan will take Pakistan's side cos Afghan govt is effective only in Kabul. Remaining all the Afghanistan is still with Pakistan.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its a serious discussion going on. At least we do not need any Pakistani in this forum. Back off !!

      Delete
    2. Like how cowardly Pak attacks without identity...so is your message...without identity...u r one of those cowards

      Delete
    3. And speaking about Muslims...Bangladesh and Afghanistan are already with us..

      You rightly said Pak has nthg to lose...bcos u guys have never gained anything...losers

      Please chk ur China made nukes...they may not even work :)

      We Hindus are against coward people like u...which are jst 5% of Muslims...most Islam following people are good lime how we have in India

      Delete
    4. Your anonymity in the blog shows how brave you are.. And moreover are we here to fight? I have many friends in Pakistan and they are great human beings. We get in touch on daily basis. But My question to you Mr. Anonymous is, Shall we keep on fighting and keep on creating huge profit to the Military, Arms and ammunition dealers and companies?? When public on both sides of border is living in hell and conditions are spiraling down, instead of talking about peace we talk about war. Kind of allies you are mention are already torn up and destroyed by war. Are we willing to bring India and Pakistan to the level of Afghanistan. Only war can do that.

      Delete
    5. I was expecting that you guys would respond on the Indian sponsored terrorism in Pakistan.
      Khair... No one likes war. Neither you nor me (if we act sensibly) Kashmir is the core issue and Pak India have fought number of times becuase of Kashmir. Why dont we let UNO or anyother unbiased third party help us resolve this issue. I wont let a third pary get in an issue if I Know deep inside my heart that I am the main culprit. If you guys think that India's demand on Kashmir issue is absolutely RIGHT then why isIndia avoiding any third party/UNO??
      Just imagine how much money India and Pakistan are spending on weapons/ammunition. If we resolve Kashmir issue, we both can spend these billions on our public. Compare the standard of living of a European and the one living in sub continent. There is a huge diference. Trust me USA or Europe ect are neither sincere to Paksitan nor India. Imagine we both stop buying weapons from them. This will hurt them. They want this issue to remain alive. they lose nothing.. inn the end either a Pakistani or Indian gets killed. Harmony guys harmony!!! Leasder is the one who raises the standards his general public. any one can talk of war. Any one from either side can talk of war. The braver one will talk to settling the issues in a just manner on table. We should act smarlty not cleverly.
      No one is scared of war in this region... neither you nor us. If Someone wants to start a war then lets do it. Lets see who survives. By the way...Do you know who will get the benefit if Pak and India keep on fighting for decades??? The ones who sell us the arsenals. they will keep on getting the money and we will keep on paying them and also get our ppl killed.

      Delete
  69. Give China what they need from Pakistan

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  70. After reading all this i feel the best solution it to hit the highway which runs through PoK. Nothing big i am pretty sure blowing up a small part of this highway would really cripple both Pakistan and China.

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  71. The author mentioned....that mostly it has been written n analysed by someone having twitter handle @vadakkus. From all of the elaborations.....somehow i find...probably the twitter handle is of someone...who wants to create a fear factor amongst the indians....by adding china to the forefront. Broadly...i am not very much convinced by all those logics. Yes china will help these beggers....dats obvious but china wont come openly against india due to international pressure. Writer may plz clarify about the details of the twitter handle @vadakkus.

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  72. Nice analysis and well explained but here some other facts are missing which may play a major role.
    Such as,
    just check revenue debt of China. Currently 1 dollar GDP growth is costing 6 dollar debt to China.
    China's population is more than India's, their consumption is more and if they go on war with India, they won't be able to make much affect in Indian ocean. Only route to their energy requirement is through Indian ocean. Also China's economy is mostly dependent on export and that is currently going through Indian Ocean again.
    Considering this fact and several other, I think this is the best time to strike as Once the CPEC completes, over options will get more limited.
    A country with large population, huge resource requirement, falling economy growth and hug debt will only approach India for Friendship and avoid any conflict when they have dependency on us.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Nice analysis and well explained but here some other facts are missing which may play a major role.
    Such as,
    just check revenue debt of China. Currently 1 dollar GDP growth is costing 6 dollar debt to China.
    China's population is more than India's, their consumption is more and if they go on war with India, they won't be able to make much affect in Indian ocean. Only route to their energy requirement is through Indian ocean. Also China's economy is mostly dependent on export and that is currently going through Indian Ocean again.
    Considering this fact and several other, I think this is the best time to strike as Once the CPEC completes, over options will get more limited.
    A country with large population, huge resource requirement, falling economy growth and hug debt will only approach India for Friendship and avoid any conflict when they have dependency on us.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Poor, innocent India being attacked for no reason. What the article should mention is that after all the atrocities committed by the Indian forces in Kashmir there is bound to be retaliation and it doesn't have to be from Pakistan.


    Examples:

    The murder of an 11-year-old boy, who was shot in the back, has triggered mass protests – with up to 50 000 defying a curfew. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3794431/Thousands-defy-official-curfew-attend-funeral-Kashmiri-boy-11-killed-Indian-government-forces.html?ITO=1490)

    He is one of 80 civilians dead and 10 000 injured by Indian security forces since unrest has escalated since June 2016.

    But these problems aren’t new. Writing in 2013 Arundhati Roy said: “Today Kashmir is the most densely militarized zone in the world. India has something like 700,000 security forces there. And in the ’90s, early ’90s, the fight became—turned into an armed struggle, and since then, something like 68,000 people have died, maybe 100,000 tortured, 10,000 disappeared, you know? I mean, we all talk a lot about Chile, Pinochet. These numbers are far greater.”

    DISAPPEARANCES: Unofficial estimates put the number of disappeared persons between 1989 and 2006 at anywhere between 8000-10,000. (http://apdpkashmir.com/about/ )

    RAPE: In 2015, there were more than 3,935 registered cases of rape in Kashmir by troops. (http://www.crescent-online.net/2016/09/round-the-clock-curfew-abductions-and-killings-continue-in-indian-occupied-kashmir-tahir-mahmoud-5476-articles.html )

    #Rape against women (and even against male detainees) has been a deliberate tool of oppression for decades, with gang rapes by Indian soldiers as punishment for their resistance to Indian rule being the norm. (https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/INDIA935.PDF )
    (http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/lead-article-politics-of-rape-in-kashmir/article6909603.ece )

    #HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES LEADING TO SUICIDE: 17 000 cases of suicide (mainly women) over approx 20 years. (http://www.milligazette.com/news/3983-increasing-cases-of-suicide-in-kashmir )

    ACCUSATIONS OF COVER UP:
    (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/12/indian-forces-kashmir-accused-human-rights-abuses-coverup )
    (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/india-covering-abuses-kashmir-report-150910003213898.html )


    It's truly shocking that the level of awareness about these horrors is shockingly low.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Excellent thoughts...China will start responding if we place some economic factors into the equation. To make this work, we need China to increase its business commitment in India in the form of manufacturing without a reverse commitment from our IT companies.

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  76. Good analysis, various suggestions have their merit and demerit but I agree with m patra in this era of complex world. Why china knows India is big country with long border hence each other dependence is more fruitful for economy of countries. Why china prefer it. Pak is not reliable , irresponsible, mil control. At any time they creat hurdle., And black mail the situations as in the case of America. Due to islam terrorism it is equally affected, and also harm the china, China thought near by indian logic, so long time strategies should be adopted. It shameful in part of previous govt that have not taken it seriously other wise route and port made available to Nepal,bangladesh, china etc.

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  77. Good analysis, various suggestions have their merit and demerit but I agree with m patra in this era of complex world. Why china knows India is big country with long border hence each other dependence is more fruitful for economy of countries. Why china prefer it. Pak is not reliable , irresponsible, mil control. At any time they creat hurdle., And black mail the situations as in the case of America. Due to islam terrorism it is equally affected, and also harm the china, China thought near by indian logic, so long time strategies should be adopted. It shameful in part of previous govt that have not taken it seriously other wise route and port made available to Nepal,bangladesh, china etc.

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  78. Very well put. Add To this the fact that all the rivers coming to North India are originating from Tibet Now under control of China. China is making Dams on almost all the rivers to choke India for Waters. In the light of this article and the fact about rivers, The Big question is :

    Can we and should we fight China???

    All the Emotional Noise on Social Media is result of Our Prime Minister's Pre election Charged statements.

    But is the problem that simple that we will get into the war and come back by killing all the Jihadi or whatever we say groups and problem is solved?

    All problems are solved on many fronts and the balance must be created to all the measures.

    There will be economical, defensive, aggressive, diplomatic, Bold and well thought out solutions.

    First question we must ask ourselves:
    Why is China against us?? If we assure China we are not going to stop its work in Pakistan can it change the situation? (Introspective and well thought out Solution)

    Or if we consider Converting LOC to International Border and we make sure we are honest about it, will it work??
    A bold solution as we Indians will Despise our Govt. for being spineless.
    Even Pakistani public will not digest it.

    Or can we threaten China with blocking and boycotting Chinese imports to India? Can be one really effective Economical Solution.

    Can we Wage a full fledged war with Pakistan and China? Aggressive Solution but we must consider its consequences and effectiveness of the solution. It will not be very effective as the past wars have not yielded any results in terms of permanent solution to Kashmir issue.

    Can we Convert a foe into an Allie? Diplomatic solution.

    For me The last one will be more effective. If we Let China believe that if we stand together no power in the world can go against about half of the world market and we are honest about it it can work.

    Shouting charged slogans, reacting by blowing Baluchistan Issue, Charged statements and trying any single sided solution is not going to work.

    ReplyDelete
  79. This article is factually true.. But key point remains to be answered is if China has this type of current and future financial dependency in that region why is it not instructing pakistan to keep the situation in balance.. And not provoke.
    Simla agreement binds the LoC and India is all cool about following it..
    If region remains calm it is actually beneficial for China to conduct it's business
    Otherwise even if it creates that type of infrastructure it will be in constant threat of India destructing it on first provocation
    So two things come to my mind...
    Either this is all India sponsored games to do something big at international stage.. Although highly unlikely if we have the mattel to do it...
    Or this is just a retaliation to India raising Baluchistan topic not for Baluchistan or pakistan but to do ungli in china for not supporting the NSG membership...

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  80. I completely trust my country's prime minister. He is doing his best to retaliate and he will do it tactfully. Wait & Watch.

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  81. Good article but old news. Sorry to say this but China has already been building its military bases around India known as pearl of Strings. It has already been in talks with all our neighbours to control the strategic areas. There are some bigger internal issues to take care of before going to war with Pakistan. Our current state of war preparedness is very poor. I had read a few articles last year that we do not have ammunitions for more than 2 weeks.

    Secondly, if we go to war, it will consume next five years of economic progress of India which we can not risk at this stage with world economy already fragile at this moment. Currently, India is seen as a very profitable destination in terms of investment. If we go to war, the investors will lose faith and will again begin to pull out. We need to avoid that.

    So yes Kashmir is a big issue for India but there are bigger but silent issue that need to be taken care of. Hence, Modi pinched Pakistan on Baluchistan to pressurize it and avoid losing foothold on Kashmir situation while doing nothing significant

    ReplyDelete
  82. India literally in a serious position and can shut it down like anything.. so what we have in our hand is population and a powerful PM. To make India a payback nation we should turn the market in us towards us..
    may be some of you have no Idea what I'm talking about.

    First we should play a monopoly by cutting the relation of pak-china. But how? those are in the hands of Business people. cutting the trade directly will affect the Economy! so, we should first erase the market strength that China is playing south-east and have to implement ours.. it that so easy? No way!
    then how? that's the loop holes we have to find it out

    What if there's No market in South-East and in India the problem will raise more like anything in India especially on Kashmir, that's the point we have to take risk because we have only 2 options, 1-> we have to surrender Kashmir or 2)-> we have to kick Pak out of market. how?

    Pak economy is already at stake, when we keep turning Investors to India there will be no option but to fear India (as the world is controlled by Business people). doing that also makes India to lose in hands of Foreigners.. for that you have first raise the market standard for our Indians but cutting the loop holes where the struggle happening from like ( uncontrolled population explosion, decree extraditions) then Indian market will also grow eventually and slowly we can gain India back..

    to be safe from Chinese B***ds we have to play this monopoly

    ReplyDelete
  83. By the argument of CPEC and market, china would like pakistan to hold on POK, but there is no reason to finance militancy in kashmir. If china has so much control over pakistan, it can very well conduct peace talks between india and pakistan to have line of control as permanent boundaries to safeguard its investments.

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  84. Personally, I don't think the argument of China intervening militarily in case of an encounter with Pakistan is tenable. I am sure they will help covertly but directly NO. Also, the western powers especially the US will not be watching if that happens. The whole argument around CPEC and it's significant economic use to China is surely there but a more recent development which doesn't explain Pakistan's permanent obsession with Kashmir since we separated. What baffles me and worries is after 25 year of IT revolution we are still not able to do anything to them digitally. In fact we often here how they have defaced some of our websites!

    ReplyDelete
  85. Its so well explained and analyzed. Its high time to support our government in whatever decision they take. Also India should focus more (as far as I know already doing) have good relations with non-friendly China countries I.e. Japan and others. India is in trouble. Please be united.

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  86. Only option India has, grow economically so strong to push China in backfoot & do whatever we can do in pok that Pakistan has been doing & stop China in CPEC.this is not correct time for war , consider cold war techniques. Chaina is nervous about India's prospect of growth. Wait for China's downfall.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Well crafted article with lot of info. Historical geographical and economical sense the blogger had tried to put in people mind but sorely gets the bottomline preposterous and easy way off the mark.
    All those numbers just don't add up.
    My point is can China afford a 2 trillion dollar war or more with India for a 50 billion investment in CPEC.

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  88. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  89. Very educative Blog. One thing I would like to question though is The reason for Pakistan's obsession with Kashmir. If POK and Baluchistan is so important both for Pakistan and China, why are they not trying for a deal with India in which they keep POK and India keeps the rest of Kashmir and live happily? They get their CPEC and we keep Kashmir valley.

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  90. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  91. Well analysed, though it was not unknown to me. The CPEC is Pakistan's next survival strategy. It has lived for long hanging on to the teats of superpowers, be it US then and China now. To reclaim POK, we need to settle Baluchistan first. Pakistan needs to be dismembered into Baluchistan which would be a country, Sindh merged back to India, the NWFP and FATA to be merged back with Afghanistan and the rest remaining as a mutilated and moth-eaten Pakistan. Only once that is accomplished can we reclaim POK. That is the only way out of the muddle.

    In all this game of cloak and daggers, the military has no role. Its all of spooks and spies.

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  92. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  93. They why don't India call for India China Economic Corridor. This will receive tension immensely. Then we can probably take over POK.

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  94. Bring the kaoboys, some of u might know what im saying(know who kaoboys are). They gave us kashmir.Give them(chainistan)theres. We are well capable of that( remember elections in srilanka?) The war has been already started on financial grounds we need financial soldiers to carry out missions like make in india revamp our bussines policies to get more international inntrest on our side. War has tobe fought on many levels but its vital for our survival

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  95. Only option India has, grow economically so strong to push China in backfoot & do whatever we can do in pok that Pakistan has been doing & stop China in CPEC.this is not correct time for war , consider cold war techniques. Chaina is nervous about India's prospect of growth. Wait for China's downfall.

    ReplyDelete
  96. There seems to be one solution i.e Sell our soul to Japan and support Japan on world forum in its all aggression against China

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  97. I don't think China will interfere much. They are not stupid like US to put their army on the ground. They will give tactical support. Specially with Baluchistan and Afghanistan opposing Pakistan. They are also surrounded by Japan and other nations opposed to their expansion ambition. A war would hurt their economy which they cannot afford at this time. Congress lost golden opportunity when Bangladesh war was lost. But the war for Indira's electoral ambitions than for India.Modi should do some out of the box thinking like hiring mercenaries.

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  98. If it is just business, China would have come to India for giving it a pass. Why India would have pissed China? China should still be interested. India still doesn't wanna give access to piece of land it doesn't control? Doesn't make much sense. Does it? So it must not be just business route. There has to be more to it. China obviously wants region supremacy and Pakistan took the bait.

    Any war against pakistan will destabilize govt there resulting in more freedom to terror groups. Talks could progress. Still India can and should response to terror outfits whether sponsored by state or not.

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  99. Good one, but just keep watching on the action plan

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  100. I think, china cannot impact INDIA in anyway, if you look at the strengths, its obvious that CHINA is more powerful than INDIA at the same time, if at all it moves forward into INDIA everyone in the world knows CHINA gains more control and could become more powerful than USA. So USA should support INDIA to keep CHINA in cheque and even CHINA has to keep in MIND that if it concentrates on attacking INDIA there may be better chance that USA may wipeout CHINA too, now USA has his stratagic ally UK, starts supporting INDIA if CHINA involves and RUSSIA may support INDIA due to border issues between CHINA and RUSSIA and JAPAN is always against CHINA.
    How do you expect CHINA to even touch INDIA. PAKISTAN you better become INDIA otherwise its your funeral.

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  101. Good information to understand the actual fact. In connection to the same, i would rather say that India must take POK at any cost as china cannot interfer for that land atleast. Now might people in India will realaise why Moji was meeting the global leaders in the world. If does not gets support on international level, we cannot win the war against Pak. And to get the support on international level is only possible if those countries invest their money in our country.

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  102. Interesting viewpoints. But, much as I like Kiran Kumar and have met him personally-and like him very much- I do not agree with him fundamentally-that we have to fight China if we want to even hit terror camps in Pakistan or POK.

    I have just one counter-point. India has fought four wars with Pakistan, the first when China was not even able to stand up and see the world. Not once has China intervened to save Pakistan! Not even when Indira Gandhi broke that country into two!!!

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  103. EXCELLENT article to showcase the real situation of today. Most of the points have been covered by you while addressing the question of why we don't strike a war with Pakistan.

    As per my understanding the real question today in front of us is how to tackle the frequently happening attacks on our army camps, bases and soldiers. Just because China wants CPEC, do we mean to lose our soldiers. See, no country can select their enemy as per their choice or comfort. You need to fight with whoever is standing in front of you irrespective of the differences in military power and resources. Atleast start testing our strengths. It's perfectly fine that we are nowhere in front of China when it comes to military power but attacking Pakistan will atleast pass some message to China and to rest of the world. Today China has a hand holding with Pakistan, tomorrow they will handhold with Srilanka and will claim southern part of India. After that they will extend their friendship to Myanmar and will claim the eastern part of India. And finally after certain years India will remain only with the central and western part of the nation and some part of north.

    Now suppose, IF BJP doesn't get the same majority in 2019 elections and suppose Congress comes in power, would it possible to expect from them to attack on Pakistan. In that case for next 5 years it would be like giving a safe passage to CPEC by Indian govt itself. BJP doesn't have even 3 years to deal with this situation now.

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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  106. EXCELLENT article to showcase the real situation of today. Most of the points have been covered by you while addressing the question of why we don't strike a war with Pakistan.

    As per my understanding the real question today in front of us is how to tackle the frequently happening attacks on our army camps, bases and soldiers. Just because China wants CPEC, do we mean to lose our soldiers. See, no country can select their enemy as per their choice or comfort. You need to fight with whoever is standing in front of you irrespective of the differences in military power and resources. Atleast start testing our strengths. It's perfectly fine that we are nowhere in front of China when it comes to military power but attacking Pakistan will atleast pass some message to China and to rest of the world. Today China has a hand holding with Pakistan, tomorrow they will handhold with Srilanka and will claim southern part of India. After that they will extend their friendship to Myanmar and will claim the eastern part of India. And finally after certain years India will remain only with the central and western part of the nation and some part of north.

    Now suppose, IF BJP doesn't get the same majority in 2019 elections and suppose Congress comes in power, would it possible to expect from them to attack on Pakistan. In that case for next 5 years it would be like giving a safe passage to CPEC by Indian govt itself. BJP doesn't have even 3 years to deal with this situation now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What if we build a strong large wall along bakistan?
      we dont want POK, I personaly feel

      Delete
  107. A few thoughts. If you thought this wasn't being discussed, you are remarkably uninformed. The strategic circles were abuzz with this even since China started the AIIB and the SREB / OBOR. So many, so many articles were written by Stobdan / ex / current strategic experts and a lot of them argued pretty much the same thing vadakkus / you argue (and more cogently too, if I may add so)

    Though I agree with you in most points, I quite disagree with the conclusions.

    China has a lot of levers but they cant ride rough shod. Mind it. No one will allow it. Not the US / not the EU. [Think strategically, not think like high school friends: just like you mentioned]:

    If China tries to get away from a naval / sea blockade through OBOR/SREB, US / EU / Japan have all the reasons to be concerned. Why the heck will they not support India / otherwise if China wants to ride rough shod? [I just dont even begin to get that]

    All said and done, it is complicated. But there is just not a one way road from here. There are multiple paths and India needs to decide which is the best course. I am sure there are nice starts out there who will look at the options and dwell on them. Path is prickly but eventually, we can make it out in our favour.

    A few anecdotes:

    a. Even Ghani (Af PM) didn't want good India relations and chose as 4th partner (Pak, China, US, India). Now he knows better. It took time though.
    b. Even SL went the China way and looked at a base which was about to be leased to China. Then Sirisena came. The base dev slowed. They came around a bit (not much. I hear that dev is still taking place)
    c. Even Nepal went the China way. India fought for the Madhesis. Now they are having a constructive dialogue with Prachanda. They will also come around.
    Ditto all the IOR littorals.

    Don't go too far in your assumptions / conclusions. The situation is a mess, as it is - but people are working on it and there is hope. Its not China all the way. China or US or any country has its limits.

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  108. Analysis is very much true and the plan of china is to target India. This is why they were operating terror from myanmar. Mr.kiran has given the correct analysis. As per me the november is the best time. But we should be well equiped by our neuclear missiles as well. Ban chinese products in India. Use russia and USA to support us to occupy POK back. Balochistan issue must be ignited politically and financially. Supply more arms to vietnam, Burma,....our previous governments just wasted the time and money. Now we Indians need to start the freedom fight. Boycutte chinese products. The we can alove our childrens to live free or let them be slaves. Earlier it was british now it may be china. Act wisely.

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  109. The best way is to give the Chinese people a road to Arabian sea through Maharashtra.Then we can easily get back the lost J&K and the Chinese will never reach the sea due to the traffic and the maratas!

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  110. Hmm...it's not that Indian government did not notice all these things! They did and they have been working to counter CPEC as well (refer to US India logistic support agreement)
    How do we do it? Like Russians do it. We need to divert Chinese attention towards SCS while we are at taking on Pakistan. (Just like China attacked India in 62 while bay of pigs and Cuban crisis had Russian attention and withdrew right after, yeah, I differ with the opinion that China was testing waters in India back then)
    It's evident, if we look at how Putin handled syria, China ll do just the same for Pakistan.
    The key is in SCS. When SCS waters heat up, Pakistan will evaporate so will be the CPEC. Perhaps that's why Indian government decided to retaliate at a "time n place" of its choosing.

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  111. China seeks to be the sole custodian of access through South China Sea (SCS). It seeks to establish control over territorial waters of other nations so that it can exercise control over not only resources in those waters (fisheries,minerals, oil etc) but also shipping. By controlling shipping it can control commerce over much of present day Asean and East Asia. If it succeeds in establishing its dominance over SCS other states like Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Philippines etc would effectively be reduced to vassal status. The same strategy is at play with CPEC with the exact opposite implications for India. India (by virtue of her geography/demography) is the natural hegemon of the Indian Ocean Area. Historically all trade here passed through India. India was central to access east, south-east, south, west and central asia.
    Acquiescence to CPEC would dilute India's geographical advantage and historical position. Besides diluting a millennia long geographical advantage, acquiescence to CPEC is detrimental for India's future security by way in multiple ways. Hence Indians would be better off treating the CPEC threat with alacrity rather than as fait accompli. Pakistans bad attitude is only going to get worse if it is economically prosperous, China a few years from no would be an even more uncontrollable hegemon. Hence Pakistan's misadventures in Kashmir should looked upon as an opportunity to neutralize a colossal future threat than letting it paralyze us with fear.

    Just like in south china sea PRC is trying to send a message that there is no bypassing or ignoring China as far as trade,commerce,movement is concerned, India will need to send the same message to China or other superpowers - that they cannot expect smooth sailing by ignoring/bypassing India in the Indian Ocean Area.

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  112. Hmm...it's not that Indian government did not notice all these things! They did and they have been working to counter CPEC as well (refer to US India logistic support agreement)
    How do we do it? Like Russians do it. We need to divert Chinese attention towards SCS while we are at taking on Pakistan. (Just like China attacked India in 62 while bay of pigs and Cuban crisis had Russian attention and withdrew right after, yeah, I differ with the opinion that China was testing waters in India back then)
    It's evident, if we look at how Putin handled syria, China ll do just the same for Pakistan.
    The key is in SCS. When SCS waters heat up, Pakistan will evaporate so will be the CPEC. Perhaps that's why Indian government decided to retaliate at a "time n place" of its choosing.

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  113. Best is to be strong internally first, hardly matter diplomatically how good we are.

    Though it seems we are gud today, but it will go away as illusion when we will be on war......

    Better kill bastered who are supporting Pakistan first like serperatist & pass law if any Public figure Particulary

    politicians speaks in favour of Pakistan must be in Jail in National interest. They must be taught how to speak on National interest ,

    when our soldiers are getting killed. Stop all type of communication with Pakistan be it Social\sports\cultural\etc.

    And above all war should not be on the basis of opinion on internet. It should be on ground reality only.

    We are stronger than Pakistan, but not too strong to deal everything smoothly.

    Jai Hind............. there are several ways we can to kill Pakistan, before going to war & feel that

    is what Govt. doing very well.... who will answer why even military & airport base are not safe.

    And last but not least don't follow TV channels much.

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  114. Sir really mind blowing analysis. We need to tighten the noose of china's business and teach a lesson to both by helping the baluchis

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  115. Sir really mind blowing analysis. We need to tighten the noose of china's business and teach a lesson to both by helping the baluchis

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  116. Nawaz Sharif + Raheel Sharif + US President = Harami Club.

    They will back stab us at the most opportune moment, surely. Under any circumstances if India keeps it Armed forces' hands tied for eternity, the guns will turn inwards. There is a limit to the patience of a soldier and time is running out... even general know it.

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  117. Rajiv Chandran's analysis is quite appealing and correct. If not now then there may be no second chance. We are getting engulfed by geopolitical game and out rotten politicians are busy in petty politics. Shame on you CPM and CPI.

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  118. This doesnt seem to be the reality...Kashmir issue is there for 68 years and CPEC is seriously planned for arnd 15 years...its different thing that China would back Pakistan. However calling China proxy-proxy to Uri attack is not the right analysis in my view...

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  119. The first war over Kashmir in '47-'48 brought the Pakistan Army into the limelight. With a wink and nod from the political establishment the Pakistani Army provided army and transported tribal militias to wrest J&K from Indian control. This prominence gave the Pakistan Army access to resources that it never really relinquished. Jinnah's passing from the scene left a power vaccum in Pakistan that was never effectively filled by political elites because of serious disagreements on various issues, e.g., national language. This vaccum was over time filled by the Pakistan Army.

    In order to guanrantee its role in Pakistani discourse, and secure the bulk of resources for itself, the Pakistani Army had no real interest in finding a settlement to the J&K problem. They tried in '65 to resolve the matter by force and despite superior equipment, could only achieve a stalemate on the western front. '71 was a self inflicted wound on the part of Pakistan. India played midwife at the birth of Bangladesh.

    Pakistan Army has chosen to retreat to the barracks on a few occassions, but has kept tight control over defense and foreign policy. The politicians have been consumed by petty squabbles and self-aggrandisement, giving the army plenty of lattitude to step in as it deemed necessary. Over time, the Pakistan Army's commercial entities (manned primarily by retired army staff) have grown to assume a major chunk of the economy in Pakistan. These same entities stand to gain considerably from the CPEC initiative.

    Pakistan's involvement in Afghanistan has primarily benefited the Pakistan Army as funds from the Islamic world and the US were diverted to the Pakistan Army priorities. The Pakistani Army is looking for another host to latch on to as the US tries to extricate itself from Afghanistan.

    The role and attitude of the Pakistani Army will not change unless they blunder into a military disaster that completely destroys its standing, or it perceives a major threat to its "business model". '71 war was such a military disaster, but India did not have the economic and military clout to settle matters on the western front. A similar conflict is not feasible without nuclear weapons being brought into the picture, and hence very unlikely to transpire.

    The CPEC offers India a lever if it is willing to play hardball. This requires that India carry out surgical strikes againt training camps and Pakstan Army facilities in Pakistani Kashmir, along the proposed major arteries that are going to connect China and Pakistan. Yes, there will be reprisals in J&K, but that is a price that India is paying already. Raising the temperature in Pakistani Kashmir raises the cost and risk associated with China's investments in CPEC. Pushing out the timeline and benefits of the CPEC will be painful for the Pakistan Army and may bring it to the bargaining table.

    This has to be done in a measured way. Start small and slowly up the ante. A major blitzkrieg or conflict is not going to bring the desired results.

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  120. Good analysis made in the article and good comments made. We should view the designs of hegemonist China after its economic success when U S A n other countries made huge investments which they have to bother now. China's expansionist designs were ignored by the world including India when it occupied Tibet and lay claims to Thaiwan , Hongkong and now South sea. IndiaIndia did not stop Korakoram high way and presently Gwadar high way. It is true that China almost occupied Pak though their deceit by fadlse promise velop them.This Chinese design is dangerous to usf strategically. It is also a fact that China' s interest now lies in POK n Baluchistan. And it it has more interest to keep Kashmir issue boiling . Hence in view of strategic issues involved we should have patience , develop strategic depth through defence development n economic might to sustain for more time and strength and seek our justice with poweras we have to face dual enemy in the uncertainty of which country would back us militarily. Only might will prevail and we should be able to get that might for our justice..

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  121. Send contingents of Arms , Money and all that is required to Burn Paki and Chines Interests in Baluchistan . Let them taste the Poison they are being feeding us . 2 things will happen , China will be forced to come to Negiociation table and Pakistan will again be divided into 2 Pisces . India cannot afford a WAR with China until US and Japan are onbaord . The good part is that this may happen sooner then we think as China will show teeth to US in South China Sea and to Japan over those Islands because now it is a prestige issue and they cannot look Weak otherwise rest of the countries in South China sea will take advantage of this Situation ....... Till this happen India must do everything (send Money and arms ,,, I guess Money willl be enough as Arms are easily avaliable in Pakistan ). The Good part about India arming Blooch Fighters is that India is Geographically far away from Baluchistan and we donot need to give our land to any extremist .

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  122. Just a thought....

    I have been reading several articles & processed thoughts from think tanks either trending or individually expressed post Uri attacks

    It makes me conclusively arrive at a decision making to respond

    - no strength is greater than being self assertive

    - do not wait for consensus to garner support

    - do not get contained by the theoretical calculations of consequences

    - outgrow the fear & take risk & have the guts to own the consequences

    - no gains without pains

    - the victorious rewrite history

    - victorious are powerful, respected & equations change accordingly

    - declare ceasefire when you attain level 1 to get breathing space & wait for next opportunity for expansion strengthening the core in time

    - tell the world we too can plan to nuke first if anyone threatens us with " N" world irrespective of anything signed in the history since independence

    - Yadnyadatta V Dixit

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  123. Well analyzed the situation. Another point to ponder is location of j and k, especially the pok. If india neglects this area, it is going to be a doom. Through a strong military build up and nuke any one can control the full world from here. Pakistanis and Chinese can never be trusted. They will go to any extend to get full control of pok. If a war is waged against Pakistan at this juncture, China will hesitate to side Pakistan openly and international pressure can be brought as this war is against terrorism. As a citizen we should extend full moral support for our Jawan, commanders of defence defence forces, our Govt. And we will come out with laurels for our future generation. As a first step let us all put a stop in Chinese business in India. Let us not import anything from China. This is the time to teach China as they are also morally and economically down. JAI HIND. BELIEVE IN OUR JAWANS.

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  124. why China had not tried for the same corridor through a stable India rather that a unstable pak. If this could happen china will help to get POK even.

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